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Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation

93K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.0%

45%60%
Floor53.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.3%.

Measured over 93K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 93K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
93K
Best context
58.9% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Worst context
52.5% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.4%
Draws
3.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +7.5% · Breakpoint: Never

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 92.8 · Trap factor: +8.9 · 93K games

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 56.8% at 0-999, 70.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (950 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (1,615 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (769 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (2,504 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (5,053 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (2,850 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (3,898 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (9,375 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (5,870 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (153 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (4,130 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (11,713 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (7,403 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (363 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (3,652 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (10,231 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (5,784 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (349 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (2,557 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (6,056 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (3,073 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (174 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (1,261 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (1,728 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (785 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 62.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (545 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (204 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.2% expected score (97 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 63.0% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation scores 54.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.7% and 54.3% — from 93K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
93K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation, White wins 52.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 93K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 55.1% (3.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.7% in Blitz (46K games) against 54.6% in Rapid (27K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 53.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 52.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 52.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 52.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 52.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 53.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 846 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 52.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 46K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 52.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 27K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 51.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.2% of its games and loses 44.2%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.