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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation

1.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score59.4%Range (90% confident): 57.2% – 61.7%Based on 1.3K games
0%59.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 57.2% – 61.7%
Outcome Distribution
57.7%3.4%38.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Qh4
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation
Analyzen=1.3K
Avg Length27 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a 59.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 57.2% and 61.7%), based on 1.3K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 97.5 · Trap factor: -27.3 · n=1.3K

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.0% · Blitz best · Rapid worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 58.6% win rate (13 games)
  • 1200-1399: 67.2% win rate (32 games)
  • 1400-1599: 61.7% win rate (90 games)
  • 1600-1799: 68.5% win rate (189 games)
  • 1800-1999: 57.6% win rate (414 games)
  • 2000-2199: 55.7% win rate (355 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.8% win rate (179 games)
  • 2500+: 45.1% win rate (24 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (62%), worst in Blitz (55%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 60.1% win rate (354 games)
  • Blitz: 55.1% win rate (716 games)
  • Rapid: 62.1% win rate (215 games)
  • Classical: 55.6% win rate (12 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 73.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 60.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 62.4% expected score (47 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 73.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 74.7% expected score (37 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 65.1% expected score (101 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 75.8% expected score (45 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (75 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (243 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 62.2% expected score (93 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 65.0% expected score (95 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (207 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (50 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (71 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (95 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a 38.9% (90% CI: 36.6%-41.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 48.5% win rate for white (179 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (41.0%) outperforms Rapid (33.0%) by 8.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a 28.6% (90% CI: 23.4%-34.1%) win rate for white, based on 189 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a 40.8% (90% CI: 36.9%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 414 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a 40.0% (90% CI: 35.7%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 355 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 42.4%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 179 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a 37.8% (90% CI: 33.6%-42.1%) win rate for white (354 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a 41.0% (90% CI: 38.0%-44.1%) win rate for white (716 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a 33.0% (90% CI: 27.9%-38.4%) win rate for white (215 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation is slightly favors black with a 38.9% (90% CI: 36.6%-41.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.