Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation
1.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
59.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 61.7%.
Measured over 1.3K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.3K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.3K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 27 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.6%
- Draws
- 3.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 0-999, 48.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 73.6% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 88.5% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 60.7% expected score (36 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 62.4% expected score (47 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 73.6% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 74.7% expected score (37 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 65.1% expected score (101 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 75.8% expected score (45 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (75 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (243 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 62.2% expected score (93 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 65.0% expected score (95 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (207 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (50 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (71 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (95 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.8% expected score (19 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation scores 59.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 57.2% and 61.7% — from 1.3K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.3K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation, Black wins 57.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 38.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.4%. It rests on 1.3K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation perform best?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 70.0% (189 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 57.1% in Blitz (716 games) against 64.6% in Rapid (215 games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 27 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 68.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 28.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 70.0%. It rests on 189 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 57.6%, draws 1.6% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.4%. It rests on 414 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 55.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 355 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.8%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 179 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 60.1%, draws 2.1% and loses 37.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.2%. It rests on 354 Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 55.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 716 Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 62.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 33.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.6%. It rests on 215 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation a good opening?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 57.7% of its games and loses 38.9%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.