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Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense

244K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.0%Range (90% confident): 48.8% – 49.1%Based on 244K games
0%49.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.8% – 49.1%
Outcome Distribution
46.8%4.3%48.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...d6
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense
Analyzen=244K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense has a 49.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.8% and 49.1%), based on 244K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.9% win rate (2,913 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.6% win rate (8,884 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.1% win rate (20,265 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.5% win rate (34,652 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.1% win rate (50,701 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.7% win rate (61,166 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.8% win rate (45,117 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.6% win rate (17,919 games)
  • 2500+: 43.2% win rate (2,110 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in UltraBullet (30%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 30.2% win rate (83 games)
  • Bullet: 47.6% win rate (79,286 games)
  • Blitz: 46.6% win rate (131,491 games)
  • Rapid: 45.9% win rate (31,743 games)
  • Classical: 42.9% win rate (1,124 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,418 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,072 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (416 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (4,187 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (3,773 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (897 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (8,224 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (9,633 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (2,360 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.5% expected score (34 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 22.9% expected score (28 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (10,923 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (18,881 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (4,681 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (139 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 27.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (14,389 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (28,622 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (7,413 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (261 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (15,291 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (36,719 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (8,708 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (440 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (13,136 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (25,960 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (5,810 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (207 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (9,807 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (6,650 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (1,440 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.4% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (1,911 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (181 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (18 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 244K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense perform best?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.4% win rate for white (18K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (69.2%) outperforms Classical (49.6%) by 19.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.3%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 8.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 51K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 61K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.3%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.6%) win rate for white (79K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.9%) win rate for white (131K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.2%) win rate for white (32K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 47.2%-52.1%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense a good opening?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense is statistically balanced with a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.