Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense
244K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.1%.
Measured over 244K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 244K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 244K
- Best context
- 50.7% at 1400-1599 Rapid
- Worst context
- 44.1% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.7%
- Draws
- 4.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 43.9%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,418 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,072 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (416 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (4,187 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (3,773 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (897 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (8,224 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (9,633 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (2,360 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.5% expected score (34 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 22.9% expected score (28 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (10,923 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (18,881 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (4,681 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (139 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 27.2% expected score (16 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (14,389 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (28,622 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (7,413 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (261 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (15,291 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (36,719 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (8,708 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (440 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (13,136 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (25,960 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (5,810 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (207 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (9,807 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (6,650 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (1,440 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.4% expected score (22 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (1,911 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (181 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (18 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense scores 49.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.8% and 49.1% — from 244K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 244K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense, Black wins 46.8%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 244K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense perform best?
The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 50.1% (51K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.0% in Blitz (131K games) against 48.6% in Rapid (32K games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense?
The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 48.9%, draws 2.3% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.6%, draws 2.5% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 51K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 61K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.8%, draws 5.5% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.6%, draws 6.0% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 43.2%, draws 7.7% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 79K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.6%, draws 4.8% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 131K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.3% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 32K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 42.9%, draws 7.5% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense a good opening?
The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.8% of its games and loses 48.9%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.