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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense

502K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

55.0%

45%60%
Floor54.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.1%.

Measured over 502K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 502K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
502K
Best context
65.5% at 1200-1399 Classical
Worst context
51.6% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
96.9%
Draws
3.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +10.4% · Breakpoint: Never

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.4% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 58.1% at 0-999, 52.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 66.9% expected score (34 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (12,965 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 59.1% expected score (13,684 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (5,764 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (71 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (27,646 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (44,844 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (18,065 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (212 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (148 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (33,965 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (68,137 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (32,854 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 65.5% expected score (666 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (99 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (28,803 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (59,410 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (34,795 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.8% expected score (1,545 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (28 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (19,768 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (34,053 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (20,049 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (1,326 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (10,330 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (14,274 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (7,639 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.3% expected score (349 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (3,966 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (3,246 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.2% expected score (1,362 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 71.5% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (1,312 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (482 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.9% expected score (104 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (112 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (44 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Continuations (7)
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line
47.2%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation
50.9%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation
49.7%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense
46.1%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation
50.4%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation
46.8%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation
42.9%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense scores 55.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.9% and 55.1% — from 502K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
502K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Black wins 53.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 502K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 58.5% (32K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 54.9% in Blitz (238K games) against 57.3% in Rapid (121K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 57.4%, draws 2.2% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.5%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 54.5%, draws 2.5% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 91K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 53.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 136K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 52.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 125K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 52.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 75K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 52.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 52.4%, draws 4.9% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 8.6K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 50.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 44.2%, draws 6.0% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 158 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 50.9%, draws 1.1% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 394 Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 52.0%, draws 2.0% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 139K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 53.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 238K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 55.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 121K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 58.1%, draws 4.4% and loses 37.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.3%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 53.4% of its games and loses 43.4%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.