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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense

502K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score55.0%Range (90% confident): 54.9% – 55.1%Based on 502K games
0%55.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.9% – 55.1%
Outcome Distribution
53.4%3.1%43.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Na5
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense
Analyzen=502K
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.1%

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense has a 55.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 54.9% and 55.1%), based on 502K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +10.4% · Breakpoint: Never

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.4% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 57% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 57.4% win rate (32,465 games)
  • 1000-1199: 54.5% win rate (90,838 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.3% win rate (135,770 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.9% win rate (124,652 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.4% win rate (75,224 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.0% win rate (32,601 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.4% win rate (8,608 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.2% win rate (1,905 games)
  • 2500+: 44.2% win rate (158 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (58%), worst in UltraBullet (51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.9% win rate (394 games)
  • Bullet: 52.0% win rate (138,867 games)
  • Blitz: 53.2% win rate (238,174 games)
  • Rapid: 55.3% win rate (120,634 games)
  • Classical: 58.1% win rate (4,152 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 66.9% expected score (34 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (12,965 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 59.1% expected score (13,684 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (5,764 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (71 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (27,646 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (44,844 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (18,065 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (212 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (148 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (33,965 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (68,137 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (32,854 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 65.5% expected score (666 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (99 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (28,803 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (59,410 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (34,795 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.8% expected score (1,545 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (28 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (19,768 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (34,053 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (20,049 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (1,326 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (10,330 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (14,274 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (7,639 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.3% expected score (349 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (3,966 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (3,246 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.2% expected score (1,362 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 71.5% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (1,312 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (482 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.9% expected score (104 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (112 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (44 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Continuations (7)
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line
47.2%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation
50.9%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation
49.7%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense
46.1%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation
50.4%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation
46.8%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation
42.9%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense has a 43.4% (90% CI: 43.3%-43.6%) win rate for white, based on 502K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 44.0% win rate for white (75K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (46.0%) outperforms Classical (37.5%) by 8.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense has a 40.4% (90% CI: 40.0%-40.9%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense has a 43.0% (90% CI: 42.8%-43.3%) win rate for white, based on 91K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense has a 43.8% (90% CI: 43.6%-44.0%) win rate for white, based on 136K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense has a 43.7% (90% CI: 43.5%-44.0%) win rate for white, based on 125K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.7%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 75K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense has a 43.8% (90% CI: 43.3%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense has a 42.8% (90% CI: 41.9%-43.6%) win rate for white, based on 8.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense has a 45.2% (90% CI: 43.4%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 43.3%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 158 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense has a 47.9% (90% CI: 43.8%-52.0%) win rate for white (394 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.2%) win rate for white (139K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense has a 43.4% (90% CI: 43.2%-43.6%) win rate for white (238K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense has a 40.8% (90% CI: 40.5%-41.0%) win rate for white (121K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense has a 37.5% (90% CI: 36.3%-38.8%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense is slightly favors black with a 43.4% (90% CI: 43.3%-43.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.