39K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense has a 44.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.8% and 44.6%), based on 39K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 53% → 36%
Best in Classical (47%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense has a 54.6% (90% CI: 54.2%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 39K rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 59.8% win rate for white (287 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (55.0%) outperforms Classical (48.3%) by 6.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense has a sharpness score of 97.6 (very decisive), meaning 97.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense has a 51.5% (90% CI: 45.9%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 219 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 1.1% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 48.8%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 974 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 50.9%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense has a 53.6% (90% CI: 52.7%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 8.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense has a 55.2% (90% CI: 54.5%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense has a 55.7% (90% CI: 54.8%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 8.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense has a 55.3% (90% CI: 53.9%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense has a 59.8% (90% CI: 55.0%-64.5%) win rate for white, based on 287 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense has a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.3%-55.8%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.6%.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense has a 54.8% (90% CI: 54.2%-55.3%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.8%-54.1%) win rate for white (4.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.
In Classical games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense has a 48.3% (90% CI: 42.7%-53.9%) win rate for white (213 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense is statistically favors white with a 54.6% (90% CI: 54.2%-55.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.