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Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense

39K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

44.2%

40%55%
Floor43.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 44.6%.

Measured over 39K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 39K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
39K
Best context
48.3% at 1600-1799 Rapid
Worst context
42.2% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
97.6%
Draws
2.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.7% at 0-999, 39.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (148 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (59 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (537 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (378 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (56 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (1,520 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (1,644 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (247 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (2,473 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (5,249 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (903 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.3% expected score (67 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (3,172 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (8,434 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (1,843 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (99 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (2,337 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (4,864 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.2% expected score (1,432 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (34 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (1,423 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (1,239 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (328 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 38.5% expected score (190 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.5% expected score (86 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense scores 44.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.8% and 44.6% — from 39K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
39K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense, Black wins 43.0%, draws 2.4% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 39K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 46.9% (3.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 44.0% in Blitz (22K games) against 45.3% in Rapid (4.8K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense has a sharpness score of 97.6 (very decisive), meaning 97.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.4%, draws 1.1% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 219 Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.7%, draws 1.9% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 974 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.1%, draws 1.5% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.5%, draws 2.0% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 8.7K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 55.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 41.4%, draws 2.9% and loses 55.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 8.7K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 35.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 59.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.9%. It rests on 287 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 43.4%, draws 1.6% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 47.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 213 Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.0% of its games and loses 54.6%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.