Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line
64K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.1%.
Measured over 64K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 2.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 64K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 64K
- Best context
- 54.2% at 1000-1199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 49.5% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.3%
- Draws
- 2.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.8% at 0-999, 41.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (193 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (160 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (37 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (750 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (855 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (223 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (1,720 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (2,533 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (720 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (2,528 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (5,628 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (1,764 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (48 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (3,394 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (8,848 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (2,848 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (137 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (3,677 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (10,183 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (3,163 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (142 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (2,967 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (6,671 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1,542 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (40 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,581 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (1,347 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (274 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (178 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 35.7% expected score (23 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line scores 51.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.5% and 52.1% — from 64K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 64K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line, Black wins 50.4%, draws 2.7% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 64K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line perform best?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 52.9% (10.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.0% in Blitz (36K games) against 50.9% in Rapid (11K games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 42.4%, draws 2.2% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 391 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.2%, draws 2.2% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.2%, draws 1.9% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 10.0K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.6%, draws 2.4% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.8%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.6%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.9%, draws 10.4% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 205 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 50.9%, draws 1.8% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 50.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 36K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 49.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 48.5%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 383 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line a good opening?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 50.4% of its games and loses 46.9%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.