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Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack

68K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.8%

45%60%
Floor53.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.1%.

Measured over 68K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 68K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
68K
Best context
60.0% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Worst context
51.8% at 1600-1799 Rapid
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
94.9%
Draws
5.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +20.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 63.0% at 0-999, 54.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (40 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (90 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 65.4% expected score (67 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (122 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 67.9% expected score (149 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (272 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (359 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.3% expected score (386 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 60.0% expected score (850 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (1,263 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (908 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (70 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (1,923 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (4,601 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (1,730 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (227 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (3,401 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (11,640 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (4,091 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (386 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (4,433 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (12,599 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (3,921 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (229 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (4,741 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (6,615 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (1,374 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (1,365 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (517 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack scores 53.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.5% and 54.1% — from 68K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
68K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack, White wins 51.2%, draws 5.1% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 68K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack perform best?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 64.6% (341 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.6% in Blitz (38K games) against 53.7% in Rapid (13K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 52.3%, draws 6.8% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 139 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 62.3%, draws 4.5% and loses 33.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.6%. It rests on 341 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 56.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 39.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 55.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 52.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.2%, draws 5.6% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.9%, draws 6.3% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 51.6%, draws 7.1% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 52.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 38K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 50.6%, draws 6.2% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 50.5%, draws 8.5% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 961 Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack a good opening?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.2% of its games and loses 43.7%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.