Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack
18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
56.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 57.1%.
Measured over 18K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 2.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 18K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 18K
- Best context
- 61.1% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Worst context
- 51.5% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Average game length
- 30 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.5%
- Draws
- 2.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.1% at 0-999, 62.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (61 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (22 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (207 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 59.8% expected score (131 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (707 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (775 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (95 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (1,068 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (2,082 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (328 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (1,640 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (3,943 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (773 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (46 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (1,223 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (2,713 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (718 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 66.3% expected score (17 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (719 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.2% expected score (642 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (175 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (66 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack scores 56.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.9% and 57.1% — from 18K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 18K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack, White wins 55.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 18K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack perform best?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 57.6% (4.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 57.2% in Blitz (10K games) against 57.9% in Rapid (2.1K games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack has a sharpness score of 97.5 (very decisive), meaning 97.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 55.7%, draws 1.6% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 351 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 55.1%, draws 1.9% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 54.9%, draws 2.1% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 55.1%, draws 2.7% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 56.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 53.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 53.9%, draws 1.6% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 55.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 10K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 56.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack a good opening?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 55.2% of its games and loses 42.3%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.