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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation

48K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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8...cxb5
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.2%

40%55%
Floor47.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.6%.

Measured over 48K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 48K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
48K
Best context
57.0% at 2000-2199 Blitz
Worst context
31.7% at 1000-1199 Blitz
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
97.2%
Draws
2.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.0% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 34.2% at 0-999, 55.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 37.6% expected score (397 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 37.5% expected score (198 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 31.7% expected score (64 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 40.3% expected score (1,462 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 31.7% expected score (829 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.1% expected score (196 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 40.1% expected score (2,380 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 36.9% expected score (1,877 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 39.5% expected score (544 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (3,115 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (3,010 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (970 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (26 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (3,279 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (4,677 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (1,262 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (66 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (2,877 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (5,588 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (1,418 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 65.0% expected score (99 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (2,524 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (4,446 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (1,208 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 64.1% expected score (27 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (1,978 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (1,895 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (368 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (490 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (232 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation scores 48.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.9% and 48.6% — from 48K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
48K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation, Black wins 46.8%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 48K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 55.9% (8.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.9% in Blitz (23K games) against 48.8% in Rapid (6.0K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 36.2%, draws 1.3% and loses 62.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.9%. It rests on 660 Lichess games, which average 21 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 36.5%, draws 1.7% and loses 61.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.4%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 37.8%, draws 1.9% and loses 60.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.8%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 40.4%, draws 2.4% and loses 57.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.6%. It rests on 7.1K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.0%, draws 2.3% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 9.3K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 51.4%, draws 2.7% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 10.0K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 54.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 52.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 45.6%, draws 10.2% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 739 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.8%, draws 2.5% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 47.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 23K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 47.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 55.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 233 Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.8% of its games and loses 50.4%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.