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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation

48K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.2%Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 48.6%Based on 48K games
0%48.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 48.6%
Outcome Distribution
46.8%2.8%50.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...cxb5
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation
Analyzen=48K
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.8%

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation has a 48.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.9% and 48.6%), based on 48K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.0% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 36% → 46%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 36.2% win rate (660 games)
  • 1000-1199: 36.5% win rate (2,494 games)
  • 1200-1399: 37.8% win rate (4,812 games)
  • 1400-1599: 40.4% win rate (7,128 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.0% win rate (9,292 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.4% win rate (9,985 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.2% win rate (8,205 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.6% win rate (4,244 games)
  • 2500+: 45.6% win rate (739 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (55%), worst in UltraBullet (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 43.9% win rate (27 games)
  • Bullet: 45.8% win rate (18,502 games)
  • Blitz: 47.4% win rate (22,752 games)
  • Rapid: 47.3% win rate (6,045 games)
  • Classical: 55.2% win rate (233 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 37.6% expected score (397 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 37.5% expected score (198 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 31.7% expected score (64 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 40.3% expected score (1,462 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 31.7% expected score (829 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.1% expected score (196 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 40.1% expected score (2,380 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 36.9% expected score (1,877 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 39.5% expected score (544 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (3,115 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (3,010 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (970 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (26 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (3,279 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (4,677 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (1,262 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (66 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (2,877 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (5,588 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (1,418 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 65.0% expected score (99 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (2,524 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (4,446 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (1,208 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 64.1% expected score (27 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (1,978 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (1,895 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (368 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (490 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (232 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 48K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 61.8% win rate for white (2.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.7%) outperforms Classical (40.7%) by 11.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation has a 62.5% (90% CI: 59.4%-65.6%) win rate for white, based on 660 Lichess games. Average game length is 21 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation has a 61.8% (90% CI: 60.2%-63.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation has a 60.3% (90% CI: 59.1%-61.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation has a 57.2% (90% CI: 56.3%-58.2%) win rate for white, based on 7.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 9.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.1%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 10.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation has a 42.4% (90% CI: 41.5%-43.3%) win rate for white, based on 8.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation has a 43.5% (90% CI: 42.3%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 41.2%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 739 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 10.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.3%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.2%) win rate for white (23K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.9%) win rate for white (6.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation has a 40.7% (90% CI: 35.5%-46.0%) win rate for white (233 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation is statistically balanced with a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.