Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sokolsky Variation
150 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
43.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.8%.
Measured over 150 games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 150 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 150
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.4%
- Draws
- 3.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.0% at 0-999, 38.1% at 2200-2499.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 25.9% expected score (13 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 39.4% expected score (22 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (27 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (12 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sokolsky Variation scores 43.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 36.6% and 49.8% — from 150 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 150+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sokolsky Variation win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sokolsky Variation, White wins 41.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 55.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 150 rated games from Lichess.
How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sokolsky Variation?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sokolsky Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sokolsky Variation a good opening?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sokolsky Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 41.3% of its games and loses 55.1%. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.