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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line

71K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

44.0%

40%55%
Floor43.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 44.3%.

Measured over 71K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 1.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 71K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
71K
Best context
51.7% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Worst context
37.1% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Average game length
21 moves
Games that end decisively
98.2%
Draws
1.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: −5.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 96.0 · Trap factor: −16.2 · 71K games

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.3% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 40.3% at 0-999, 50.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (2,445 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (3,756 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (1,463 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 34.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (4,348 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (8,332 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (4,461 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 34.5% expected score (50 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 31.7% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (4,475 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (8,331 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (6,300 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (156 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 25.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (3,582 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (5,097 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.9% expected score (4,418 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (246 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (2,133 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (2,801 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 38.5% expected score (2,061 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.7% expected score (154 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (1,257 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 40.1% expected score (1,791 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (960 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 35.0% expected score (65 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (557 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (709 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (269 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (291 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (186 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.5% expected score (30 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (124 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line scores 44.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.7% and 44.3% — from 71K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
71K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line, White wins 43.1%, draws 1.8% and loses 55.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 71K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.5% (132 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 43.8% in Blitz (31K games) against 41.2% in Rapid (20K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line has a sharpness score of 98.2 (very decisive), meaning 98.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 21 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 41.9%, draws 1.7% and loses 56.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.8%. It rests on 7.7K Lichess games, which average 18 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 42.6%, draws 1.9% and loses 55.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 19 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 43.8%, draws 1.8% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 21 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 43.8%, draws 1.8% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 22 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 42.5%, draws 1.7% and loses 55.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games, which average 22 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 40.9%, draws 1.9% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 43.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 509 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 49.8%, draws 9.4% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 132 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 46.8%, draws 1.3% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 42.8%, draws 2.0% and loses 55.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 31K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 40.1%, draws 2.1% and loses 57.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.2%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 38.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 58.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.8%. It rests on 689 Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 43.1% of its games and loses 55.1%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.