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Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense

478K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

40.7%

35%55%
Floor40.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 40.8%.

Measured over 478K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 478K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
478K
Best context
43.6% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
32.0% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
97.5%
Draws
2.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 37.7%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (5,119 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (7,704 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.0% expected score (4,446 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (26 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 40.3% expected score (13,121 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (21,180 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (12,924 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (118 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 40.6% expected score (20,405 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (39,940 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 40.4% expected score (22,049 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (603 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 40.8% expected score (22,969 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (56,647 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.3% expected score (29,709 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (1,419 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.0% expected score (21,544 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (58,269 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 39.3% expected score (27,052 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.3% expected score (1,778 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (17,892 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (40,403 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (16,705 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.8% expected score (906 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (9,624 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (13,946 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 37.5% expected score (5,301 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.1% expected score (135 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (3,525 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.3% expected score (1,788 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 32.0% expected score (529 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.2% expected score (288 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Continuations (1)
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line
46.9%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense scores 40.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 40.6% and 40.8% — from 478K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
478K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Black wins 39.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 58.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.7%. It rests on 478K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 41.9% (17K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 41.1% in Blitz (240K games) against 39.5% in Rapid (119K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense has a sharpness score of 97.5 (very decisive), meaning 97.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 40.6%, draws 2.5% and loses 56.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 39.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 57.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.9%. It rests on 47K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 39.4%, draws 2.4% and loses 58.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.6%. It rests on 83K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 39.1%, draws 2.4% and loses 58.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.3%. It rests on 111K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 39.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 58.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.4%. It rests on 109K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 39.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 57.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.1%. It rests on 76K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 40.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 56.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.7%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 38.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 58.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.5%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 36.3%, draws 8.3% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.5%. It rests on 317 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 40.6%, draws 1.7% and loses 57.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.5%. It rests on 114K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 39.7%, draws 2.6% and loses 57.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.1%. It rests on 240K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 37.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 58.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.5%. It rests on 119K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 34.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 62.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.8%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 39.4% of its games and loses 58.0%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.