TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense

478K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score40.7%Range (90% confident): 40.6% – 40.8%Based on 478K games
0%40.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 40.6% – 40.8%
Outcome Distribution
39.4%2.5%58.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Bc5
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense
Analyzen=478K
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness98%
Draw Rate2.5%

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense has a 40.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 40.6% and 40.8%), based on 478K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 41% → 36%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 40.6% win rate (17,297 games)
  • 1000-1199: 39.7% win rate (47,352 games)
  • 1200-1399: 39.4% win rate (83,007 games)
  • 1400-1599: 39.1% win rate (110,751 games)
  • 1600-1799: 39.1% win rate (108,646 games)
  • 1800-1999: 39.7% win rate (75,906 games)
  • 2000-2199: 40.2% win rate (29,006 games)
  • 2200-2499: 38.9% win rate (5,849 games)
  • 2500+: 36.3% win rate (317 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (41%), worst in UltraBullet (26%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 26.2% win rate (31 games)
  • Bullet: 40.6% win rate (114,487 games)
  • Blitz: 39.7% win rate (239,897 games)
  • Rapid: 37.9% win rate (118,722 games)
  • Classical: 34.1% win rate (4,994 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (5,119 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (7,704 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.0% expected score (4,446 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (26 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 40.3% expected score (13,121 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (21,180 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (12,924 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (118 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 40.6% expected score (20,405 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (39,940 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 40.4% expected score (22,049 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (603 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 40.8% expected score (22,969 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (56,647 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.3% expected score (29,709 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (1,419 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.0% expected score (21,544 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (58,269 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 39.3% expected score (27,052 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.3% expected score (1,778 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (17,892 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (40,403 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (16,705 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.8% expected score (906 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (9,624 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (13,946 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 37.5% expected score (5,301 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.1% expected score (135 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (3,525 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.3% expected score (1,788 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 32.0% expected score (529 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.2% expected score (288 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Continuations (1)
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line
46.9%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense has a 58.0% (90% CI: 57.9%-58.1%) win rate for white, based on 478K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 58.5% win rate for white (111K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (62.6%) outperforms Bullet (57.7%) by 4.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense has a sharpness score of 97.5 (very decisive), meaning 97.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense has a 56.9% (90% CI: 56.3%-57.6%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense has a 57.9% (90% CI: 57.6%-58.3%) win rate for white, based on 47K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense has a 58.2% (90% CI: 57.9%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 83K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense has a 58.5% (90% CI: 58.3%-58.7%) win rate for white, based on 111K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense has a 58.3% (90% CI: 58.1%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 109K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense has a 57.5% (90% CI: 57.2%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 76K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense has a 56.9% (90% CI: 56.4%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense has a 58.0% (90% CI: 57.0%-59.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense has a 55.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-60.0%) win rate for white, based on 317 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 8.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense has a 57.7% (90% CI: 57.5%-58.0%) win rate for white (114K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense has a 57.6% (90% CI: 57.5%-57.8%) win rate for white (240K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense has a 58.9% (90% CI: 58.7%-59.1%) win rate for white (119K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense has a 62.6% (90% CI: 61.5%-63.7%) win rate for white (5.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense is statistically favors white with a 58.0% (90% CI: 57.9%-58.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.