TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation

364 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score51.7%Range (90% confident): 47.4% – 55.9%Based on 364 games
0%51.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.4% – 55.9%
Outcome Distribution
50.8%1.8%47.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...Bd7
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation
Analyzen=364
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness98%
Draw Rate1.8%

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation has a 51.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.4% and 55.9%), based on 364 Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 27%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 11.1% win rate (3 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.4% win rate (14 games)
  • 1400-1599: 55.1% win rate (52 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.8% win rate (79 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.4% win rate (108 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.3% win rate (77 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.1% win rate (26 games)
  • 2500+: 27.3% win rate (4 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (52%), worst in Classical (39%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 50.8% win rate (94 games)
  • Blitz: 51.9% win rate (194 games)
  • Rapid: 47.6% win rate (71 games)
  • Classical: 38.5% win rate (5 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 63.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (59 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (46 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.9% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 43.2%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 364 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 50.3% win rate for white (79 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (50.3%) outperforms Bullet (47.6%) by 2.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation has a sharpness score of 98.2 (very decisive), meaning 98.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 38.4%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 108 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 0.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 40.5%-52.2%) win rate for white (194 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation is slightly favors black with a 47.5% (90% CI: 43.2%-51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.