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Analyzer

Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined

339K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.8%Range (90% confident): 45.6% – 45.9%Based on 339K games
0%45.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.6% – 45.9%
Outcome Distribution
43.6%4.3%52.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...d6
Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined
Analyzen=339K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined has a 45.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.6% and 45.9%), based on 339K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.1% win rate (32,433 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.1% win rate (53,711 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.7% win rate (66,302 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.5% win rate (65,889 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.3% win rate (56,364 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.3% win rate (40,761 games)
  • 2000-2199: 41.0% win rate (17,331 games)
  • 2200-2499: 40.9% win rate (5,529 games)
  • 2500+: 42.4% win rate (745 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (48%), worst in Classical (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.3% win rate (558 games)
  • Bullet: 45.9% win rate (89,209 games)
  • Blitz: 43.1% win rate (165,241 games)
  • Rapid: 42.0% win rate (81,146 games)
  • Classical: 39.3% win rate (2,911 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.5% expected score (31 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (7,454 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (16,759 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (8,145 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (44 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (124 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (12,477 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (26,545 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (14,340 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (225 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (192 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (15,925 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (31,645 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (17,954 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (586 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (129 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (16,104 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (32,259 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (16,453 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (944 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (59 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (14,458 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (28,266 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (12,851 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (730 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (11,975 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (20,254 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (8,204 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (309 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (6,875 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (7,643 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (2,746 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (65 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (3,519 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (1,554 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.5% expected score (446 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (422 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (316 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate?

The Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined has a 52.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 339K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined perform best?

The Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 52.6% win rate for white (66K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (56.4%) outperforms UltraBullet (51.2%) by 5.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined?

The Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 54K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.3%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 66K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 66K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 56K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 41K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.9%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined has a 45.2% (90% CI: 42.2%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 745 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 12.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined has a 51.2% (90% CI: 47.7%-54.7%) win rate for white (558 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.4%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.8%) win rate for white (89K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.6%) win rate for white (165K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined has a 53.3% (90% CI: 53.0%-53.6%) win rate for white (81K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined has a 56.4% (90% CI: 54.9%-57.9%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined a good opening?

The Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined is statistically favors white with a 52.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.