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Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined

339K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.8%

40%55%
Floor45.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.9%.

Measured over 339K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 339K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
339K
Best context
48.8% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
39.1% at 1600-1799 Classical
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
95.7%
Draws
4.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 47.9%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.5% expected score (31 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (7,454 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (16,759 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (8,145 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (44 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (124 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (12,477 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (26,545 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (14,340 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (225 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (192 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (15,925 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (31,645 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (17,954 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (586 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (129 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (16,104 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (32,259 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (16,453 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (944 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (59 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (14,458 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (28,266 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (12,851 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (730 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (11,975 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (20,254 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (8,204 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (309 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (6,875 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (7,643 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (2,746 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (65 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (3,519 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (1,554 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.5% expected score (446 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (422 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (316 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined scores 45.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.6% and 45.9% — from 339K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
339K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined, Black wins 43.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 339K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined perform best?

The Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 47.9% (32K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.4% in Blitz (165K games) against 44.4% in Rapid (81K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined?

The Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 54K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 66K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 66K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 56K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.3%, draws 5.5% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 41K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 41.0%, draws 6.5% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.9%, draws 7.8% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 42.4%, draws 12.4% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 745 Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.3%, draws 0.4% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 558 Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 89K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 165K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 81K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 39.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 56.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.5%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined a good opening?

The Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.6% of its games and loses 52.1%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.