Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation
1.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
38.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 40.7%.
Measured over 1.7K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.7K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.7K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 29 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.7%
- Draws
- 4.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.4% at 0-999, 21.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (19 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 22.7% expected score (15 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.1% expected score (58 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 32.2% expected score (35 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (42 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (112 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (89 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 38.7% expected score (60 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 34.2% expected score (207 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.1% expected score (159 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (14 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (59 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 34.0% expected score (195 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 35.8% expected score (203 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.5% expected score (19 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (44 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (113 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (128 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (20 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 37.1% expected score (41 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation scores 38.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 36.8% and 40.7% — from 1.7K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.7K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation, Black wins 36.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 59.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.7%. It rests on 1.7K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation perform best?
The Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 42.0% (303 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 36.7% in Blitz (740 games) against 39.7% in Rapid (664 games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation?
The Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 33.9%, draws 1.4% and loses 64.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 34.6%. It rests on 109 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 40.4%, draws 2.6% and loses 56.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.8%. It rests on 247 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 35.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 61.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.7%. It rests on 440 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 32.4%, draws 6.2% and loses 61.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.5%. It rests on 476 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 40.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 56.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.0%. It rests on 303 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 39.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 57.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.4%. It rests on 261 Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 35.4%, draws 2.6% and loses 62.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.7%. It rests on 740 Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 36.6%, draws 6.2% and loses 57.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.7%. It rests on 664 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation a good opening?
The Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 36.6% of its games and loses 59.2%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.