Italian Game: Deutz Gambit
204K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
55.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.0%.
Measured over 204K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 204K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 204K
- Best context
- 58.8% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 50.4% at 0-999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.0%
- Draws
- 4.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 50.7% at 0-999, 58.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (16 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (1,019 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (1,333 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (1,671 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (24 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (36 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (2,015 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (2,086 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (1,372 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (52 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 64.5% expected score (64 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (3,882 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (4,758 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (2,224 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 62.7% expected score (85 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.7% expected score (97 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (6,654 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (9,872 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (4,063 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (278 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (39 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (9,312 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (19,859 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (7,706 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (624 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.8% expected score (22 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (11,513 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (31,711 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (11,262 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (626 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (10,679 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (25,252 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (7,753 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (318 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (10,157 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (8,936 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (1,834 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.9% expected score (28 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (3,194 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (1,169 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.5% expected score (46 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit scores 55.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.6% and 56.0% — from 204K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 204K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit, White wins 53.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 204K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit perform best?
The Italian Game: Deutz Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 58.5% (4.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 55.6% in Blitz (105K games) against 54.3% in Rapid (38K games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit?
The Italian Game: Deutz Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 52.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 54.0%, draws 2.4% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 54.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 54.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 54.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 53.2%, draws 4.0% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 55K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 53.6%, draws 4.8% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 44K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 54.5%, draws 5.6% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 54.9%, draws 7.2% and loses 37.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.5%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 55.4%, draws 1.9% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 283 Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 55.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 58K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 53.5%, draws 4.2% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 105K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 51.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 38K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 52.9%, draws 5.5% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Deutz Gambit a good opening?
The Italian Game: Deutz Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 53.8% of its games and loses 42.2%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.