Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit
561 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.3%.
Measured over 561 games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 561 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 561
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 29 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.5%
- Draws
- 4.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 1000-1199, 40.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (46 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (79 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (19 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 30.6% expected score (32 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (117 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (32 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 37.1% expected score (41 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (103 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (18 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit scores 46.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.4% and 50.3% — from 561 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 561+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit, White wins 44.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 561 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit perform best?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit performs best for White at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 56.0% (66 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 47.9% in Blitz (367 games) against 50.0% in Rapid (78 games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 47.7%, draws 5.5% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 117 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 44.4%, draws 4.6% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 182 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 39.4%, draws 4.6% and loses 56.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.7%. It rests on 162 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 37.7%, draws 5.6% and loses 56.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.5%. It rests on 114 Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 46.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 367 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit a good opening?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 44.5% of its games and loses 50.9%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.