Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation
10.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.3%.
Measured over 10.0K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 10.0K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 10.0K
- Best context
- 54.0% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 50.7% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.6%
- Draws
- 4.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 58.6% at 1200-1399, 49.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (90 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (139 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (42 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (375 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (1,290 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (144 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 37.9% expected score (15 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (732 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (3,215 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (358 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (20 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (1,341 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (1,550 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (179 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (362 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 62.6% expected score (74 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation scores 52.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.6% and 53.3% — from 10.0K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 10.0K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation, White wins 50.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 10.0K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation perform best?
The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 58.0% (437 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 51.6% in Blitz (6.3K games) against 54.2% in Rapid (746 games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation?
The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 49.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 273 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 48.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.0%, draws 5.2% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 55.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 39.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.0%. It rests on 437 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 52.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.3%, draws 4.5% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 51.3%, draws 5.7% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 746 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation a good opening?
The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 50.2% of its games and loses 45.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.