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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation

557K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

58.3%

45%65%
Floor58.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 58.4%.

Measured over 557K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 557K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
557K
Best context
65.2% at 1600-1799 Classical
Worst context
54.1% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
28 moves
Games that end decisively
97.0%
Draws
3.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 54.3% at 0-999, 61.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (71 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (12,130 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (26,102 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (15,272 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (97 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.8% expected score (258 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.5% expected score (17,243 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (38,081 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (23,192 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (447 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (369 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (22,217 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (49,079 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (29,284 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (1,053 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (282 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (22,994 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 59.4% expected score (53,721 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (28,848 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (1,567 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (137 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (22,584 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 59.2% expected score (48,710 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.9% expected score (23,754 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 65.2% expected score (1,375 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (55 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (17,951 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (37,512 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (16,700 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 64.8% expected score (636 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (12,037 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (15,970 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 62.6% expected score (5,874 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.5% expected score (165 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (6,041 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 62.4% expected score (2,905 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.8% expected score (747 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 69.1% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.1% expected score (1,204 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 69.7% expected score (90 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation scores 58.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 58.2% and 58.4% — from 557K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
557K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation, White wins 56.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 557K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation performs best for White at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 59.4% (107K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 58.4% in Blitz (272K games) against 58.4% in Rapid (144K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 53.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 54K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 55.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 79K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 57.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 40.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.4%. It rests on 102K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 58.0%, draws 2.7% and loses 39.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.4%. It rests on 107K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 57.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 39.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.2%. It rests on 97K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 56.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 73K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 56.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 39.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.8%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 57.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 38.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.5%. It rests on 9.7K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 55.8%, draws 6.3% and loses 37.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.0%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 54.0%, draws 0.9% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 56.8%, draws 2.1% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 134K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 56.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.4%. It rests on 272K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 56.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 39.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.4%. It rests on 144K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 60.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 35.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.1%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 56.8% of its games and loses 40.2%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.