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Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation

668K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.6%

45%55%
Floor50.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.7%.

Measured over 668K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 668K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
668K
Best context
51.5% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Worst context
42.1% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.8% at 0-999, 51.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (3,667 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (3,896 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (1,070 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (11,377 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (16,108 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (4,408 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 33.7% expected score (26 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (21,155 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (38,535 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (11,694 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (196 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (30,096 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (67,818 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (22,557 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (566 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (35,257 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (95,871 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (30,033 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (911 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (34,381 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (99,035 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (27,760 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (1,028 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (26,228 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (45,591 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (11,391 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (195 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (14,504 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (7,920 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (1,801 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (2,339 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (228 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (17 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation scores 50.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.5% and 50.7% — from 668K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
668K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation, Black wins 48.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 668K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 51.2% (162K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.8% in Blitz (375K games) against 49.5% in Rapid (111K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 49.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 8.6K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.6%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 72K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 121K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 162K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 162K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 83K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 45.5%, draws 5.6% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 49.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 179K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 48.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 375K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 47.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 111K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 46.1%, draws 6.2% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.8% of its games and loses 47.6%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.