Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation
39K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
72.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 73.0%.
Measured over 39K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 1.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 39K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 39K
- Best context
- 75.4% at 1000-1199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 69.6% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 20 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 98.5%
- Draws
- 1.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 75.0% at 0-999, 66.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 71.3% expected score (440 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 71.2% expected score (424 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 82.5% expected score (71 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 75.4% expected score (851 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 71.9% expected score (2,047 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 74.5% expected score (488 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 74.5% expected score (1,070 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 72.9% expected score (4,443 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 71.2% expected score (1,662 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 79.3% expected score (31 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 74.4% expected score (895 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 73.2% expected score (5,655 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 72.7% expected score (3,689 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 72.2% expected score (197 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 73.1% expected score (665 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 73.1% expected score (4,337 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 71.9% expected score (4,239 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 72.4% expected score (376 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 73.7% expected score (430 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 72.1% expected score (2,310 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 72.4% expected score (2,577 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 71.5% expected score (208 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 72.2% expected score (199 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (863 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 69.6% expected score (849 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (51 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 71.9% expected score (83 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 66.8% expected score (133 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 65.2% expected score (81 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation scores 72.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 72.3% and 73.0% — from 39K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 39K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation, Black wins 71.8%, draws 1.5% and loses 26.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 72.6%. It rests on 39K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation perform best?
The Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 73.1% (10K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 72.7% in Blitz (20K games) against 72.1% in Rapid (14K games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation?
The Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation has a sharpness score of 98.5 (very decisive), meaning 98.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 20 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 71.8%, draws 0.7% and loses 27.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 72.2%. It rests on 935 Lichess games, which average 16 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 72.6%, draws 1.1% and loses 26.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 73.2%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 18 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 72.0%, draws 1.5% and loses 26.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 72.8%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games, which average 19 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 72.3%, draws 1.5% and loses 26.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 73.1%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 20 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 71.8%, draws 1.6% and loses 26.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 72.6%. It rests on 9.6K Lichess games, which average 21 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 71.6%, draws 1.5% and loses 27.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 72.3%. It rests on 5.5K Lichess games, which average 22 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 69.1%, draws 1.7% and loses 29.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 69.9%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 66.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 30.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 68.0%. It rests on 300 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 73.5%, draws 1.0% and loses 25.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 74.0%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 71.9%, draws 1.5% and loses 26.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 72.7%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 71.3%, draws 1.6% and loses 27.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 72.1%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 70.8%, draws 2.2% and loses 27.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 71.9%. It rests on 867 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation a good opening?
The Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 71.8% of its games and loses 26.7%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.