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Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation

905K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.4%

45%60%
Floor53.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.5%.

Measured over 905K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 905K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
905K
Best context
56.1% at 1200-1399 Classical
Worst context
50.4% at 1800-1999 Classical
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.3%
Draws
3.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 53.8% at 0-999, 57.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (101 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (15,429 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (25,343 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (40,705 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (417 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (178 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (29,591 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (39,449 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (34,783 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (1,103 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.2% expected score (152 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (43,317 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (68,235 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (35,236 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (1,450 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (99 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (51,517 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (86,946 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (36,242 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (2,102 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (52,381 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (87,874 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (28,484 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (1,400 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (44,961 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (69,478 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (17,096 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (743 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (29,044 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (28,994 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (5,329 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (120 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (15,028 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (7,533 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (1,166 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (2,792 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (390 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (11 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation scores 53.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.3% and 53.5% — from 905K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
905K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation, White wins 51.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 905K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 54.6% (105K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.2% in Blitz (414K games) against 53.5% in Rapid (199K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation?

The Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 50.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 82K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 52.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 105K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 52.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 148K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 177K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 170K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 132K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 63K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.3%, draws 5.3% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 51.9%, draws 6.3% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 52.3%, draws 1.9% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 560 Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 52.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 284K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.2%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 414K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 51.0%, draws 5.0% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 199K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 50.0%, draws 5.5% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.5% of its games and loses 44.8%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.