TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation

2.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score38.1%Range (90% confident): 36.6% – 39.7%Based on 2.5K games
0%38.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 36.6% – 39.7%
Outcome Distribution
36.4%3.3%60.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Bb4+
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation
Analyzen=2.5K
Avg Length27 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation has a 38.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 36.6% and 39.7%), based on 2.5K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 97.2 · Trap factor: +20.9 · n=2.5K

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 39% → 23%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 38.9% win rate (414 games)
  • 1000-1199: 35.9% win rate (621 games)
  • 1200-1399: 35.6% win rate (646 games)
  • 1400-1599: 38.4% win rate (456 games)
  • 1600-1799: 32.8% win rate (247 games)
  • 1800-1999: 32.3% win rate (96 games)
  • 2000-2199: 39.7% win rate (35 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.4% win rate (25 games)
  • 2500+: 23.1% win rate (5 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (39%), worst in Classical (28%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 38.8% win rate (337 games)
  • Blitz: 36.6% win rate (1,285 games)
  • Rapid: 35.5% win rate (887 games)
  • Classical: 28.0% win rate (36 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 38.6% expected score (60 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (224 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 39.0% expected score (130 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (67 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 37.2% expected score (315 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 36.4% expected score (233 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 42.9% expected score (69 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 36.0% expected score (323 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 37.7% expected score (238 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 24.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 35.4% expected score (43 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (240 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.9% expected score (167 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 32.5% expected score (47 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 32.3% expected score (114 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 36.8% expected score (82 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (31 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 32.6% expected score (30 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 29.7% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation has a 60.3% (90% CI: 58.7%-61.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 61.7% win rate for white (646 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (60.4%) outperforms Bullet (59.2%) by 1.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation has a 56.2% (90% CI: 52.2%-60.2%) win rate for white, based on 414 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation has a 61.3% (90% CI: 58.1%-64.5%) win rate for white, based on 621 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation has a 61.7% (90% CI: 58.5%-64.8%) win rate for white, based on 646 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation has a 58.9% (90% CI: 55.1%-62.7%) win rate for white, based on 456 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation has a 63.4% (90% CI: 58.3%-68.3%) win rate for white, based on 247 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation has a 59.2% (90% CI: 54.8%-63.6%) win rate for white (337 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation has a 60.4% (90% CI: 58.1%-62.6%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation has a 60.3% (90% CI: 57.6%-63.0%) win rate for white (887 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation is statistically favors white with a 60.3% (90% CI: 58.7%-61.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.