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Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation

78K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.4%Range (90% confident): 46.1% – 46.7%Based on 78K games
0%46.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.1% – 46.7%
Outcome Distribution
43.4%6.0%50.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...Bb4+
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation
Analyzen=78K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.0%

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation has a 46.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.1% and 46.7%), based on 78K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -6.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 38%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.3% win rate (245 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.2% win rate (691 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.7% win rate (1,599 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.1% win rate (4,651 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.3% win rate (13,095 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.3% win rate (23,988 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.1% win rate (21,528 games)
  • 2200-2499: 40.3% win rate (10,348 games)
  • 2500+: 38.3% win rate (1,580 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (44%), worst in UltraBullet (22%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 21.7% win rate (10 games)
  • Bullet: 43.2% win rate (19,645 games)
  • Blitz: 43.9% win rate (41,037 games)
  • Rapid: 42.7% win rate (16,007 games)
  • Classical: 40.8% win rate (1,026 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (68 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (115 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (62 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (187 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (290 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (209 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (479 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (617 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (481 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (1,310 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2,153 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (1,127 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 66.3% expected score (57 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (2,844 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (7,476 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (2,542 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (233 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (4,123 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (13,731 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (5,697 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (435 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (4,705 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (11,967 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (4,625 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (230 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (4,722 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (4,356 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (1,225 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.7% expected score (43 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.2% expected score (1,207 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (332 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (39 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 78K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.9% win rate for white (1.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.0%) outperforms Classical (47.4%) by 5.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation has a sharpness score of 94.0 (decisive), meaning 94.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 42.5%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 245 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 44.2%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 691 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 46.2%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.9%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation has a 54.9% (90% CI: 52.8%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.5%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.3%) win rate for white (41K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.1%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 44.9%-50.0%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.7%.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.