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Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit

3.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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3...Nd4
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.4%

45%55%
Floor51.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 3.2M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.2M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
3.2M
Best context
56.4% at 1200-1399 Classical
Worst context
38.7% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +5.8% · Breakpoint: 0-999

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Nd4 · Black wins: 49.7% · 2.9M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.4% at 0-999, 42.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (164 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (40,909 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (84,446 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (49,390 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (309 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (419 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (83,045 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (229,563 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (122,332 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (1,746 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.2% expected score (560 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (110,114 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (383,571 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (222,707 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (5,464 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.5% expected score (390 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (112,348 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (422,227 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (275,001 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (11,908 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 40.4% expected score (113 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (90,088 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (334,952 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (217,049 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (10,616 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 35.0% expected score (35 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (52,714 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (182,561 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (101,683 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (3,362 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 33.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (22,119 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (41,267 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (17,523 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (324 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (9,402 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (3,326 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (989 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.4% expected score (1,633 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.7% expected score (43 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit scores 51.4% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 51.4% — from 3.2M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
3.2M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit, Black wins 49.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 3.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit perform best?

The Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 53.4% (437K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 51.1% in Blitz (1.7M games) against 52.1% in Rapid (1.0M games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit?

The Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 175K Lichess games, which average 22 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 437K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 722K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 822K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 653K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 340K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 81K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 38.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 57.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.3%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 42.5%, draws 0.9% and loses 56.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 49.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 522K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 49.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 1.7M Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 50.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 1.0M Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 50.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 34K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit a good opening?

The Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.6% of its games and loses 46.9%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.