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Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit

3.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score51.4%Range (90% confident): 51.3% – 51.4%Based on 3.2M games
0%51.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.3% – 51.4%
Outcome Distribution
49.6%3.5%46.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nd4
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
Analyzen=3.2M
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit has a 51.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 51.3% and 51.4%), based on 3.2M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +5.8% · Breakpoint: 0-999

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Nd4 · Black wins: 49.7% · n=2.9M

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.2% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.7% win rate (175,196 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.9% win rate (437,052 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.1% win rate (722,333 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.6% win rate (821,757 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.2% win rate (652,747 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.6% win rate (340,321 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.3% win rate (81,246 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.2% win rate (13,728 games)
  • 2500+: 38.5% win rate (1,686 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (51%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.5% win rate (1,707 games)
  • Bullet: 49.2% win rate (522,313 games)
  • Blitz: 49.3% win rate (1,681,764 games)
  • Rapid: 50.2% win rate (1,006,547 games)
  • Classical: 50.7% win rate (33,735 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (164 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (40,902 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (84,436 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (49,385 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (309 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (419 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (83,034 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (229,538 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (122,315 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (1,746 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.2% expected score (560 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (110,102 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (383,533 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (222,675 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (5,463 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.5% expected score (390 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (112,329 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (422,166 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (274,964 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (11,908 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 40.4% expected score (113 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (90,083 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (334,923 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (217,015 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (10,613 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 35.0% expected score (35 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (52,713 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (182,539 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (101,672 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (3,362 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 33.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (22,116 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (41,262 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (17,522 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (324 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (9,401 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (3,324 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (989 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.4% expected score (1,633 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.7% expected score (43 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate?

The Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit perform best?

The Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 57.9% win rate for white (1.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (56.6%) outperforms Classical (45.4%) by 11.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit?

The Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit has a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 175K Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit has a 45.2% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 437K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.7%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 722K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 822K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 653K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 340K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 81K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit has a 57.9% (90% CI: 55.9%-59.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit has a 56.6% (90% CI: 54.6%-58.5%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.9%.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.4%) win rate for white (522K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit has a 47.1% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.2%) win rate for white (1.7M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.1%) win rate for white (1.0M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit has a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.0%-45.8%) win rate for white (34K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

Is the Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit a good opening?

The Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit is statistically balanced with a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.