Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line
104K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
54.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.3%.
Measured over 104K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 104K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 104K
- Best context
- 61.9% at 1800-1999 Classical
- Worst context
- 45.4% at 1000-1199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.7%
- Draws
- 4.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.5% at 0-999, 51.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (266 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (357 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (374 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (847 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (1,093 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (1,009 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,808 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (2,870 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (2,255 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (77 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (3,369 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (6,884 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (3,961 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (221 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (4,663 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (14,069 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (6,929 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.8% expected score (532 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (4,924 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (16,282 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (8,558 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.9% expected score (573 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (3,948 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (8,439 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (3,788 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (152 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (2,744 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (2,192 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (707 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 24.2% expected score (14 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (450 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (65 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line scores 54.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.8% and 54.3% — from 104K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 104K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line, Black wins 51.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 104K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line perform best?
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 55.8% (30K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.0% in Blitz (52K games) against 54.8% in Rapid (28K games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line?
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 47.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 52.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 53.4%, draws 4.8% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 51.6%, draws 5.5% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.8%, draws 6.1% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 50.0%, draws 7.1% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 528 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 51.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 23K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 51.8%, draws 4.5% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 52K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 52.2%, draws 5.1% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 28K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 55.5%, draws 6.6% and loses 37.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.8%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line a good opening?
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 51.9% of its games and loses 43.8%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.