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Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line

104K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score54.1%Range (90% confident): 53.8% – 54.3%Based on 104K games
0%54.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.8% – 54.3%
Outcome Distribution
51.9%4.3%43.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...Bxc3
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line
Analyzen=104K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line has a 54.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 53.8% and 54.3%), based on 104K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +11.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.2% win rate (1,001 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.7% win rate (2,961 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.6% win rate (7,012 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.3% win rate (14,436 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.8% win rate (26,193 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.4% win rate (30,337 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.6% win rate (16,328 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.8% win rate (5,657 games)
  • 2500+: 50.0% win rate (528 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (56%), worst in UltraBullet (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 38.5% win rate (5 games)
  • Bullet: 51.4% win rate (23,019 games)
  • Blitz: 51.8% win rate (52,251 games)
  • Rapid: 52.2% win rate (27,594 games)
  • Classical: 55.5% win rate (1,584 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (266 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (357 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (374 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (847 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (1,093 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (1,009 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,808 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (2,870 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (2,255 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (77 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (3,369 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (6,884 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (3,961 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (221 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (4,663 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (14,069 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (6,929 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.8% expected score (532 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (4,924 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (16,282 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (8,558 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.9% expected score (573 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (3,948 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (8,439 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (3,788 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (152 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (2,744 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (2,192 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (707 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 24.2% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (450 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (65 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line has a 43.8% (90% CI: 43.6%-44.1%) win rate for white, based on 104K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line perform best?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 50.5% win rate for white (3.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (45.7%) outperforms Classical (37.9%) by 7.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line has a 50.2% (90% CI: 47.6%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.0%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.5%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line has a 43.5% (90% CI: 43.0%-44.0%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line has a 41.8% (90% CI: 41.3%-42.2%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line has a 42.9% (90% CI: 42.2%-43.5%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.0%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line has a 43.0% (90% CI: 39.4%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 528 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.1%-46.2%) win rate for white (23K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line has a 43.8% (90% CI: 43.4%-44.1%) win rate for white (52K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line has a 42.7% (90% CI: 42.2%-43.2%) win rate for white (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line has a 37.9% (90% CI: 35.9%-39.9%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line a good opening?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line is slightly favors black with a 43.8% (90% CI: 43.6%-44.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.