3.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Hein Countergambit has a 51.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.7% and 52.6%), based on 3.4K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 48% → 41%
Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Classical (47%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Hein Countergambit has a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.5%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Hein Countergambit performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 64.2% win rate for white (113 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (49.1%) outperforms Classical (48.0%) by 1.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Hein Countergambit has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Hein Countergambit has a 64.2% (90% CI: 56.7%-71.4%) win rate for white, based on 113 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Hein Countergambit has a 55.0% (90% CI: 48.2%-61.8%) win rate for white, based on 143 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.0% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Hein Countergambit has a 50.6% (90% CI: 45.0%-56.2%) win rate for white, based on 215 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Hein Countergambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 47.3%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 486 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Hein Countergambit has a 43.9% (90% CI: 40.9%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 731 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Hein Countergambit has a 44.2% (90% CI: 41.8%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Hein Countergambit has a 45.2% (90% CI: 41.5%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 477 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Hein Countergambit has a 47.0% (90% CI: 44.5%-49.5%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Hein Countergambit has a 46.3% (90% CI: 44.4%-48.3%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Hein Countergambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 45.3%-52.9%) win rate for white (462 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Hein Countergambit is slightly favors black with a 46.9% (90% CI: 45.5%-48.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.