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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation

344K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.4%

45%60%
Floor52.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.5%.

Measured over 344K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 344K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
344K
Best context
56.4% at 1800-1999 Classical
Worst context
44.4% at 0-999 Blitz
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
97.0%
Draws
3.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +11.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 41.2% at 0-999, 61.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,421 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (720 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (232 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (5,338 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (4,178 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (1,249 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (12,187 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (14,663 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4,259 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (80 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 67.1% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (19,777 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (31,064 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (9,924 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (366 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (22,013 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (49,179 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (15,559 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (884 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 65.8% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (21,606 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (44,964 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (15,204 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (909 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (16,797 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (24,689 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (7,253 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (180 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (9,603 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (6,883 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (1,478 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 68.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (1,278 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.7% expected score (375 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation scores 52.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.2% and 52.5% — from 344K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
344K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation, White wins 50.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 344K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 57.8% (1.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.0% in Blitz (177K games) against 52.6% in Rapid (55K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 47.4%, draws 1.5% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 50.5%, draws 1.6% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.0%, draws 2.1% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 51.0%, draws 2.4% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 61K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 88K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 83K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 51.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 49K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 54.8%, draws 6.0% and loses 39.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.8%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 110K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 177K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 50.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 55K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 51.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 50.9% of its games and loses 46.1%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.