Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation
33K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.4%.
Measured over 33K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 33K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 33K
- Best context
- 56.8% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 45.0% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.6%
- Draws
- 3.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.1% at 0-999, 52.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (41 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 61.5% expected score (29 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (257 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (139 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (74 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (539 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (438 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (222 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (892 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,191 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (381 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (1,653 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (2,506 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (773 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (59 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (2,616 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (5,484 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (1,155 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (84 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (2,898 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (5,505 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (979 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.8% expected score (27 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (2,496 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (1,961 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (381 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (435 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.8% expected score (105 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (21 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation scores 51.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.5% and 51.4% — from 33K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 33K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation, Black wins 49.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 33K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation perform best?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 53.1% (5.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.5% in Blitz (17K games) against 52.1% in Rapid (4.0K games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.2%, draws 2.0% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 472 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 52.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.4%, draws 1.9% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 51.9%, draws 2.3% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 9.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 9.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 36.9%, draws 15.1% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 564 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 51.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 49.8%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 52.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 200 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation a good opening?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.3% of its games and loses 47.3%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.