Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense
25K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.9%.
Measured over 25K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 25K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 25K
- Best context
- 54.1% at 1200-1399 Blitz
- Worst context
- 46.1% at 1400-1599 Bullet
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.1%
- Draws
- 3.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 47.6%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (35 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (84 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (74 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (148 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (210 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (158 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (345 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (536 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (271 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (621 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (1,040 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (386 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (1,064 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (2,307 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (623 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.6% expected score (47 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,618 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (4,143 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (926 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (67 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (1,683 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (4,058 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (945 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (24 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (1,487 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (1,578 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (312 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (233 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (87 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense scores 51.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.9% and 51.9% — from 25K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 25K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense, Black wins 49.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 25K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense perform best?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 53.7% (1.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.2% in Blitz (14K games) against 52.0% in Rapid (3.7K games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 45.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 193 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.0%, draws 1.6% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 518 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 52.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.3%, draws 5.0% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 45.8%, draws 7.2% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 325 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 49.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 49.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 52.4%, draws 6.4% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 177 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense a good opening?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.4% of its games and loses 46.7%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.