Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense
25K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.9%.
Measured over 25K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 25K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 25K
- Best context
- 54.1% at 1200-1399 Blitz
- Worst context
- 46.1% at 1400-1599 Bullet
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.1%
- Draws
- 3.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 47.6%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (35 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (84 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (74 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (148 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (210 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (158 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (345 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (536 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (271 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (621 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (1,040 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (386 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (1,064 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (2,307 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (623 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.6% expected score (47 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,618 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (4,143 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (926 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (67 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (1,683 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (4,058 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (945 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (24 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (1,487 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (1,578 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (312 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (233 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (87 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense scores 51.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.9% and 51.9% — from 25K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 25K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense scores 51.4% (range, 90% confident: 50.9% – 51.9%) for Black, based on 25K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense perform best?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense performs best at 1200-1399, where it scores 53.7% for Black (1.2K games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, Rapid (52.0%) outperforms Classical (55.6%). Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense scores 46.4% (range, 90% confident: 40.6% – 52.3%) for Black, based on 193 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense scores 49.8% (range, 90% confident: 46.2% – 53.4%) for Black, based on 518 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense scores 53.7% (range, 90% confident: 51.3% – 56.1%) for Black, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense scores 49.2% (range, 90% confident: 47.4% – 51.0%) for Black, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense scores 52.0% (range, 90% confident: 50.7% – 53.2%) for Black, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense scores 50.5% (range, 90% confident: 49.5% – 51.5%) for Black, based on 6.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense scores 52.3% (range, 90% confident: 51.2% – 53.2%) for Black, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense scores 51.8% (range, 90% confident: 50.4% – 53.2%) for Black, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense scores 49.4% (range, 90% confident: 44.9% – 53.9%) for Black, based on 325 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense scores 51.3% (range, 90% confident: 50.3% – 52.2%) for Black (7.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense scores 51.2% (range, 90% confident: 50.5% – 51.9%) for Black (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense scores 52.0% (range, 90% confident: 50.6% – 53.3%) for Black (3.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense scores 55.6% (range, 90% confident: 49.5% – 61.7%) for Black (177 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.
Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense a good opening?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense is about level with a 46.7% (range, 90% confident: 46.2% – 47.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.