Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation
19K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.6%.
Measured over 19K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 19K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 19K
- Best context
- 54.7% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 47.7% at 1600-1799 Rapid
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.6%
- Draws
- 4.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 58.6%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (45 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 73.6% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (90 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (89 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (38 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (295 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (393 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (133 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (484 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (905 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (315 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 69.0% expected score (17 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (788 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,511 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (580 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.5% expected score (46 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (991 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (2,638 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (641 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (39 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (1,134 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (3,580 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (521 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (1,179 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (2,026 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (314 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (362 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.1% expected score (225 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (28 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation scores 52.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.4% and 52.6% — from 19K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 19K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation, White wins 49.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 19K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation perform best?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 57.0% (616 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.2% in Blitz (11K games) against 50.4% in Rapid (2.6K games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 47.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 218 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 48.6%, draws 2.1% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 826 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 48.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 48.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.8%, draws 5.0% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.7%, draws 5.4% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 52.2%, draws 9.5% and loses 38.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 616 Lichess games, which average 47 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.7%, draws 4.9% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.7%, draws 5.4% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 43.8%, draws 8.4% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 123 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation a good opening?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.8% of its games and loses 45.8%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.