12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Accepted has a 49.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.2% and 50.7%), based on 12K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 49% → 39%
Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Bullet (47%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Accepted has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 12K rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Accepted performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 50.0% win rate for white (2.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (50.6%) outperforms Classical (44.4%) by 6.2%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Accepted has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Accepted has a 47.9% (90% CI: 45.2%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 905 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Accepted has a 48.2% (90% CI: 45.8%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Accepted has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.2%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Accepted has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.2%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Accepted has a 49.4% (90% CI: 47.6%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Accepted has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.1%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Accepted has a 46.2% (90% CI: 44.0%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Accepted has a 49.1% (90% CI: 45.2%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 429 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Accepted has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-52.0%) win rate for white (3.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Accepted has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.6%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Accepted has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.2%-48.2%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.
In Classical games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Accepted has a 44.4% (90% CI: 37.3%-51.6%) win rate for white (128 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Accepted is statistically balanced with a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.