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Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation

60K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.7%

45%55%
Floor48.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.1%.

Measured over 60K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 60K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
60K
Best context
52.1% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
44.9% at 1000-1199 Blitz
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.9%
Draws
3.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 46.9%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (176 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (201 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (103 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (599 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (675 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (283 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (1,267 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (1,766 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (642 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (1,804 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (3,956 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (1,220 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (56 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (2,251 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (7,079 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (1,973 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (81 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (2,872 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (10,285 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (2,556 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (126 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (2,884 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (8,874 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (1,864 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (52 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (2,304 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (2,521 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (502 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (556 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (132 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation scores 48.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.4% and 49.1% — from 60K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
60K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 60K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 50.0% (14K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.5% in Blitz (35K games) against 49.3% in Rapid (9.2K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.7%, draws 1.8% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 481 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.0%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.9%, draws 2.3% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 7.0K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.4%, draws 5.6% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 700 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.6%, draws 2.3% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 35K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 47.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 45.7%, draws 6.9% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 356 Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.1% of its games and loses 49.7%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.