60K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation has a 48.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.4% and 49.1%), based on 60K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 51% → 43%
Best in UltraBullet (58%), worst in Classical (46%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 60K rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 51.8% win rate for white (7.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (50.1%) outperforms Classical (47.4%) by 2.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 43.8%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 481 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 49.2%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 700 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.8%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.3%) win rate for white (35K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.7%) win rate for white (9.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.
In Classical games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 43.1%-51.8%) win rate for white (356 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.