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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation

330K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score55.1%Range (90% confident): 55.0% – 55.3%Based on 330K games
0%55.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.0% – 55.3%
Outcome Distribution
53.4%3.4%43.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...b5
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation
Analyzen=330K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation has a 55.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 55.0% and 55.3%), based on 330K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +13.8% · Breakpoint: Never

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 55% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.2% win rate (5,055 games)
  • 1000-1199: 55.5% win rate (16,291 games)
  • 1200-1399: 55.7% win rate (33,038 games)
  • 1400-1599: 56.2% win rate (54,924 games)
  • 1600-1799: 55.0% win rate (75,456 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.8% win rate (74,721 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.0% win rate (47,230 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.2% win rate (20,023 games)
  • 2500+: 43.7% win rate (3,407 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (59%), worst in Blitz (52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 58.6% win rate (54 games)
  • Bullet: 54.9% win rate (95,579 games)
  • Blitz: 52.4% win rate (170,477 games)
  • Rapid: 53.7% win rate (61,628 games)
  • Classical: 54.9% win rate (2,407 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (2,247 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (2,105 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (700 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (6,140 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (7,530 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (2,570 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 66.9% expected score (37 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.4% expected score (10,790 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (15,231 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (6,888 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 60.8% expected score (115 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (15,556 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (26,670 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (12,226 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.8% expected score (459 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (17,559 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (40,602 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (16,454 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (833 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (17,671 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (41,570 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (14,756 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (721 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (14,105 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (26,206 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (6,694 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (223 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (8,971 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (9,737 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (1,299 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (2,540 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (826 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.9% expected score (41 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Continuations (1)
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit
44.5%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation has a 43.2% (90% CI: 43.0%-43.3%) win rate for white, based on 330K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.6% win rate for white (3.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (43.8%) outperforms UltraBullet (40.5%) by 3.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation has a 42.6% (90% CI: 41.5%-43.8%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation has a 42.2% (90% CI: 41.6%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation has a 42.0% (90% CI: 41.6%-42.5%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation has a 40.9% (90% CI: 40.6%-41.3%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation has a 41.9% (90% CI: 41.6%-42.1%) win rate for white, based on 75K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation has a 43.4% (90% CI: 43.1%-43.7%) win rate for white, based on 75K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.3%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 47K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.2%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation has a 42.7% (90% CI: 42.4%-43.0%) win rate for white (96K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 43.6%-44.0%) win rate for white (170K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation has a 42.3% (90% CI: 42.0%-42.6%) win rate for white (62K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation has a 40.8% (90% CI: 39.2%-42.5%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation is slightly favors black with a 43.2% (90% CI: 43.0%-43.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.