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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation

330K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

55.1%

45%60%
Floor55.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.3%.

Measured over 330K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 330K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
330K
Best context
61.2% at 1600-1799 Classical
Worst context
39.7% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.6%
Draws
3.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +13.8% · Breakpoint: Never

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.9% at 0-999, 41.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (2,247 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (2,105 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (700 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (6,140 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (7,530 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (2,570 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 66.9% expected score (37 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.4% expected score (10,790 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (15,231 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (6,888 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 60.8% expected score (115 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (15,556 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (26,670 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (12,226 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.8% expected score (459 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (17,559 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (40,602 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (16,454 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (833 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (17,671 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (41,570 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (14,756 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (721 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (14,105 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (26,206 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (6,694 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (223 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (8,971 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (9,737 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (1,299 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (2,540 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (826 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.9% expected score (41 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Continuations (1)
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit
44.5%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation scores 55.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.0% and 55.3% — from 330K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
330K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Black wins 53.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 330K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 57.7% (55K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 54.3% in Blitz (170K games) against 55.7% in Rapid (62K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 55.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 22 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 55.5%, draws 2.2% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 55.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 56.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 55K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 55.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 75K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 52.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 75K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 47K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.7%, draws 5.7% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 54.9%, draws 2.4% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 96K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 52.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 170K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 53.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 62K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 54.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 53.4% of its games and loses 43.2%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.