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Analyzer

Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense

54K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score41.8%Range (90% confident): 41.5% – 42.2%Based on 54K games
0%41.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 41.5% – 42.2%
Outcome Distribution
40.7%2.3%57.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...dxc3
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense
Analyzen=54K
Avg Length28 moves
Sharpness98%
Draw Rate2.3%

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense has a 41.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 41.5% and 42.2%), based on 54K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.0% win rate (342 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.3% win rate (1,356 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.7% win rate (3,976 games)
  • 1400-1599: 40.8% win rate (8,900 games)
  • 1600-1799: 39.5% win rate (14,457 games)
  • 1800-1999: 40.2% win rate (15,125 games)
  • 2000-2199: 41.6% win rate (7,964 games)
  • 2200-2499: 40.5% win rate (1,605 games)
  • 2500+: 38.5% win rate (109 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (42%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 42.2% win rate (15,730 games)
  • Blitz: 40.4% win rate (29,318 games)
  • Rapid: 38.7% win rate (8,335 games)
  • Classical: 41.1% win rate (450 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (154 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (118 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (69 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 40.3% expected score (769 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (414 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (172 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (1,810 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (1,752 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (402 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (3,203 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (4,523 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (1,117 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (57 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (3,753 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (8,199 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (2,346 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (159 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (3,247 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (8,959 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (2,741 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (178 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (1,967 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (4,642 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (1,313 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (42 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (739 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (693 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (172 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (88 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Continuations (1)
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense, Main Line
48.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.7%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 54K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 58.2% win rate for white (14K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (58.4%) outperforms Classical (55.3%) by 3.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense has a sharpness score of 97.7 (very decisive), meaning 97.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense has a 53.1% (90% CI: 48.7%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 342 Lichess games. Average game length is 21 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense has a 56.8% (90% CI: 54.5%-59.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 0.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense has a 54.9% (90% CI: 53.6%-56.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense has a 57.7% (90% CI: 56.8%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 8.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense has a 58.2% (90% CI: 57.5%-58.9%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense has a 57.2% (90% CI: 56.6%-57.9%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense has a 55.5% (90% CI: 54.6%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 8.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense has a 56.4% (90% CI: 54.4%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 42.4%-58.0%) win rate for white, based on 109 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 11.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense has a 56.3% (90% CI: 55.7%-57.0%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.6%-57.6%) win rate for white (29K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense has a 58.4% (90% CI: 57.5%-59.3%) win rate for white (8.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense has a 55.3% (90% CI: 51.4%-59.1%) win rate for white (450 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense is statistically favors white with a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.7%-57.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.