Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense
54K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
41.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 42.2%.
Measured over 54K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 2.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 54K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 54K
- Best context
- 45.6% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 38.2% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 28 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.7%
- Draws
- 2.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.5% at 0-999, 49.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (154 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (118 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (69 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 40.3% expected score (769 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (414 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (172 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (1,810 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (1,752 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (402 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (12 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (3,203 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (4,523 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (1,117 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (57 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (3,753 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (8,199 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (2,346 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (159 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (3,247 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (8,959 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (2,741 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (178 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (1,967 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (4,642 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (1,313 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (42 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (739 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (693 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (172 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (88 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (18 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense scores 41.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 41.5% and 42.2% — from 54K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 54K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense, Black wins 40.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.8%. It rests on 54K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense perform best?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 44.4% (4.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 41.7% in Blitz (29K games) against 40.2% in Rapid (8.3K games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense has a sharpness score of 97.7 (very decisive), meaning 97.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 45.0%, draws 1.9% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 342 Lichess games, which average 21 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 42.3%, draws 0.9% and loses 56.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.8%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 22 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.7%, draws 1.5% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 40.8%, draws 1.5% and loses 57.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.6%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 39.5%, draws 2.2% and loses 58.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.7%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 40.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 57.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.5%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 41.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 55.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 8.0K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 56.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.1%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 38.5%, draws 11.3% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 109 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 42.2%, draws 1.5% and loses 56.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 40.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.7%. It rests on 29K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 38.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 58.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.2%. It rests on 8.3K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 41.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 450 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense a good opening?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 40.7% of its games and loses 57.1%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.