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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense

148K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.1%

45%60%
Floor51.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.3%.

Measured over 148K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 148K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
148K
Best context
60.4% at 1000-1199 Rapid
Worst context
48.6% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
96.3%
Draws
3.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +7.0% · Breakpoint: Never

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.8% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.5% at 0-999, 51.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (520 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 64.3% expected score (212 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (111 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (1,665 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (1,277 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (521 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 90.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (3,249 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (4,597 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (1,792 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 80.2% expected score (30 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (5,655 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (10,380 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (4,368 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 64.4% expected score (211 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (8,379 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (18,604 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (6,929 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (565 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (8,694 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (23,147 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (7,671 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (466 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (7,109 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (15,173 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (4,459 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (127 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4,670 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (5,396 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (1,113 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (824 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (222 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense scores 52.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.9% and 52.3% — from 148K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
148K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense, Black wins 50.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 148K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 59.0% (846 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 52.1% in Blitz (79K games) against 54.7% in Rapid (27K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 58.6%, draws 0.8% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.0%. It rests on 846 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 53.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 53.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 9.7K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 52.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 34K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.4%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 45.4%, draws 8.0% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.7%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 41K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 50.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 79K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 52.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 27K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 54.9%, draws 6.1% and loses 38.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.0%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 50.2% of its games and loses 46.1%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.