Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense
136K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
43.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 43.9%.
Measured over 136K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 2.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 136K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 136K
- Best context
- 51.5% at 1000-1199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 39.1% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 29 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.3%
- Draws
- 2.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.5% at 0-999, 48.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (362 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (330 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (180 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (1,624 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (1,209 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (427 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (3,515 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (3,677 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (1,050 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (26 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (6,045 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (8,742 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (2,220 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (91 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (8,521 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (18,648 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (4,077 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (218 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (8,907 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (24,815 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (6,311 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (361 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (6,046 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (14,651 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.6% expected score (4,528 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.3% expected score (173 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (3,928 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (3,336 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (1,027 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.3% expected score (567 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (205 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (25 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (26 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense scores 43.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.4% and 43.9% — from 136K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 136K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense scores 43.7% (range, 90% confident: 43.4% – 43.9%) for Black, based on 136K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense perform best?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense performs best at 1200-1399, where it scores 49.3% for Black (8.3K games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, Bullet (43.9%) outperforms Classical (43.6%). Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense scores 48.2% (range, 90% confident: 45.4% – 51.0%) for Black, based on 873 Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense scores 49.5% (range, 90% confident: 48.1% – 51.0%) for Black, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense scores 49.3% (range, 90% confident: 48.4% – 50.2%) for Black, based on 8.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense scores 45.7% (range, 90% confident: 45.0% – 46.3%) for Black, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense scores 44.0% (range, 90% confident: 43.5% – 44.4%) for Black, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense scores 42.4% (range, 90% confident: 42.0% – 42.8%) for Black, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense scores 41.9% (range, 90% confident: 41.4% – 42.4%) for Black, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense scores 41.7% (range, 90% confident: 40.8% – 42.6%) for Black, based on 8.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense scores 42.2% (range, 90% confident: 39.5% – 44.9%) for Black, based on 823 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 28.2% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense scores 43.9% (range, 90% confident: 43.5% – 44.3%) for Black (40K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense scores 43.5% (range, 90% confident: 43.2% – 43.8%) for Black (76K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense scores 44.0% (range, 90% confident: 43.5% – 44.6%) for Black (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense scores 43.6% (range, 90% confident: 41.0% – 46.3%) for Black (916 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.6%.
Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense a good opening?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White with a 55.0% (range, 90% confident: 54.8% – 55.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.