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Analyzer

Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense

136K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score43.7%Range (90% confident): 43.4% – 43.9%Based on 136K games
0%43.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.4% – 43.9%
Outcome Distribution
42.3%2.7%55.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...exd4
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense
Analyzen=136K
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.7%

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense has a 43.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.4% and 43.9%), based on 136K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 28%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.8% win rate (873 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.7% win rate (3,268 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.2% win rate (8,269 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.6% win rate (17,098 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.8% win rate (31,466 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.0% win rate (40,394 games)
  • 2000-2199: 40.3% win rate (25,399 games)
  • 2200-2499: 39.9% win rate (8,304 games)
  • 2500+: 28.1% win rate (823 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (43%), worst in UltraBullet (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 38.5% win rate (5 games)
  • Bullet: 42.9% win rate (39,515 games)
  • Blitz: 42.0% win rate (75,613 games)
  • Rapid: 42.2% win rate (19,845 games)
  • Classical: 39.8% win rate (916 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (362 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (330 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (180 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (1,624 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (1,209 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (427 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (3,515 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (3,677 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (1,050 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (26 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (6,045 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (8,742 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (2,220 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (91 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (8,521 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (18,648 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (4,077 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (218 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (8,907 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (24,815 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (6,311 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (361 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (6,046 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (14,651 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.6% expected score (4,528 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.3% expected score (173 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (3,928 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (3,336 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (1,027 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.3% expected score (567 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (205 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (26 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense has a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.8%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 136K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 56.6% win rate for white (25K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (55.2%) outperforms Classical (52.6%) by 2.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 47.7%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 873 Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.2%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 8.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.7%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense has a 54.8% (90% CI: 54.4%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense has a 56.3% (90% CI: 55.9%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense has a 56.6% (90% CI: 56.1%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense has a 56.5% (90% CI: 55.6%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 8.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense has a 43.7% (90% CI: 40.9%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 823 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 28.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense has a 55.2% (90% CI: 54.8%-55.6%) win rate for white (40K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense has a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.8%-55.4%) win rate for white (76K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense has a 54.2% (90% CI: 53.6%-54.7%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 49.9%-55.3%) win rate for white (916 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.6%.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense is statistically favors white with a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.8%-55.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.