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Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense

136K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

43.7%

40%55%
Floor43.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 43.9%.

Measured over 136K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 136K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
136K
Best context
51.5% at 1000-1199 Blitz
Worst context
39.2% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
97.3%
Draws
2.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.5% at 0-999, 48.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (362 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (330 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (180 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (1,624 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (1,209 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (427 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (3,515 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (3,677 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (1,050 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (26 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (6,045 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (8,742 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (2,220 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (91 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (8,521 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (18,648 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (4,077 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (218 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (8,907 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (24,815 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (6,311 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (361 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (6,046 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (14,651 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.6% expected score (4,528 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.3% expected score (173 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (3,928 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.6% expected score (3,336 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (1,027 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.3% expected score (567 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (205 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (26 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense scores 43.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.4% and 43.9% — from 136K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
136K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense, Black wins 42.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 136K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 49.3% (8.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 43.5% in Blitz (76K games) against 44.0% in Rapid (20K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 873 Lichess games, which average 22 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.7%, draws 1.6% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 8.3K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.6%, draws 2.0% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 41.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 56.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 40.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 56.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 39.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 56.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.7%. It rests on 8.3K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 28.1%, draws 28.2% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.2%. It rests on 823 Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 42.9%, draws 1.9% and loses 55.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 40K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 55.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 76K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 39.8%, draws 7.6% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 916 Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.3% of its games and loses 55.0%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.