Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation
897 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
44.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.5%.
Measured over 897 games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 897 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 897
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.4%
- Draws
- 3.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.0% at 0-999, 58.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 26.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (16 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 34.5% expected score (37 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (18 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 36.5% expected score (43 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (24 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (61 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 28.5% expected score (24 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 32.8% expected score (45 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 38.3% expected score (114 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 61.6% expected score (59 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (221 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 33.7% expected score (20 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (60 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 66.8% expected score (55 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation scores 44.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 42.0% and 47.5% — from 897 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 897+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation, White wins 42.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 897 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation perform best?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 58.2% (115 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.4% in Blitz (558 games) against 33.2% in Rapid (111 games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 35.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 61.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.0%. It rests on 179 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 300 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 54.5%, draws 7.3% and loses 38.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.2%. It rests on 115 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 46.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 221 Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 44.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 558 Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 30.7%, draws 4.9% and loses 64.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.2%. It rests on 111 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation a good opening?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 42.9% of its games and loses 53.5%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.