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Italian Game: Jerome Gambit

263K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4.Bxf7+
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.4%

45%55%
Floor50.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.6%.

Measured over 263K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 263K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
263K
Best context
55.6% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Worst context
41.1% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
97.0%
Draws
3.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +10.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 93.5 · Trap factor: +8.6 · 263K games

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 15.0% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 51.4%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.3% expected score (35 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (4,045 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (4,981 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (2,417 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.5% expected score (164 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (9,552 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (14,799 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (5,557 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 36.6% expected score (58 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (539 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (14,998 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (29,011 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (10,020 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (697 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.3% expected score (473 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (17,431 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (35,192 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (11,536 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (527 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.6% expected score (132 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (17,221 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (28,271 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (9,233 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (526 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (41 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (13,489 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (13,509 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (3,633 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (76 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (6,825 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (4,027 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (928 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (2,307 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (412 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.7% expected score (39 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.2% expected score (430 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Jerome Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit scores 50.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.2% and 50.6% — from 263K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
263K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit, White wins 48.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 263K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit perform best?

The Italian Game: Jerome Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 59.1% (435 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.1% in Blitz (130K games) against 45.8% in Rapid (43K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit?

The Italian Game: Jerome Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 48.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 49.1%, draws 2.5% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.7%, draws 2.7% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 55K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 48.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 65K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 55K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 51.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 49.6%, draws 4.8% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 55.1%, draws 7.9% and loses 37.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.1%. It rests on 435 Lichess games, which average 46 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 57.8%, draws 0.7% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.2%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 53.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 86K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 47.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 130K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 44.1%, draws 3.4% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 43K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 42.8%, draws 4.2% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Jerome Gambit a good opening?

The Italian Game: Jerome Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.9% of its games and loses 48.1%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.