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Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack

531K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

59.7%

45%65%
Floor59.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 59.8%.

Measured over 531K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 531K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
531K
Best context
64.1% at 1400-1599 Classical
Worst context
55.9% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
96.9%
Draws
3.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.0% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.3% at 0-999, 53.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (55 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (7,601 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (11,410 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (10,796 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 68.3% expected score (86 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 37.2% expected score (92 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (14,778 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.2% expected score (20,063 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.0% expected score (14,918 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 65.0% expected score (399 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (139 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.0% expected score (21,204 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (35,254 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 60.2% expected score (20,704 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (966 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 58.3% expected score (107 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.8% expected score (28,353 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 59.5% expected score (52,595 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 60.0% expected score (27,250 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 64.1% expected score (1,767 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (25 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 59.9% expected score (26,223 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (61,331 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (27,734 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 60.7% expected score (2,170 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 59.7% expected score (19,323 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 59.6% expected score (44,965 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (21,967 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.9% expected score (1,154 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (11,407 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (19,222 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 61.5% expected score (7,305 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (259 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 60.3% expected score (5,928 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (8,432 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.9% expected score (1,442 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 71.5% expected score (38 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (1,865 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (1,126 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (78 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack scores 59.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 59.6% and 59.8% — from 531K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
531K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack, White wins 58.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 38.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.7%. It rests on 531K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack perform best?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack performs best for White at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 60.5% (117K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 59.4% in Blitz (254K games) against 60.7% in Rapid (132K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 55.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 57.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 39.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.9%. It rests on 50K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 57.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.1%. It rests on 78K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 58.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 38.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.8%. It rests on 110K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 58.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 38.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.5%. It rests on 117K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 58.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 38.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.3%. It rests on 87K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 57.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 38.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.3%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 57.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 38.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.7%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 55.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 39.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.0%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 48.2%, draws 0.8% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 421 Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 58.0%, draws 2.3% and loses 39.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.1%. It rests on 137K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 57.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 39.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.4%. It rests on 254K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 58.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 37.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.7%. It rests on 132K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 60.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 35.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.4%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack a good opening?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 58.1% of its games and loses 38.8%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.