Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit

204K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
a1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
6.O-O
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

56.8%

45%60%
Floor56.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 57.0%.

Measured over 204K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 204K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
204K
Best context
58.9% at 1200-1399 Bullet
Worst context
52.3% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
96.9%
Draws
3.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +14.7% · Breakpoint: Never

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 52.3% at 0-999, 59.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (1,874 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (1,995 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (892 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (4,901 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (6,761 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (2,071 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.5% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (9,080 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (15,063 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (4,724 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (98 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (11,384 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (22,964 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (8,164 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (342 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (10,964 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (22,936 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (8,716 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (485 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (9,733 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (19,166 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (6,147 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (396 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (7,744 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (11,737 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (2,801 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.1% expected score (151 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (6,110 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (4,144 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (811 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (1,484 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.2% expected score (284 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 60.5% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit scores 56.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 56.6% and 57.0% — from 204K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
204K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit, White wins 55.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 204K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit perform best?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 57.8% (29K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 56.7% in Blitz (105K games) against 56.7% in Rapid (34K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 53.0%, draws 2.2% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 56.0%, draws 2.0% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 56.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.8%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 56.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 56.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 54.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 52.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.7%, draws 5.6% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 53.6%, draws 7.3% and loses 39.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 55.7%, draws 2.2% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 63K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 55.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 105K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 54.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 34K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 55.9%, draws 4.4% and loses 39.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.1%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit a good opening?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 55.2% of its games and loses 41.7%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.