Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Queen's Gambit

177 variations · 76M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
a1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
2.c4
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · Overall

54.1%

45%60%
Floor54.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 76M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong opening choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 76M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
#6 of 56
Games in this context
76M
Best context
58.1% at 2000-2199 Classical
Worst context
51.1% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Variations measured
177
Average game length
34 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 53.5% at 0-999, 57.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.1% expected score (3,108 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (634,987 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (1,052,262 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (374,467 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (2,118 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (7,790 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (1,621,078 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (2,460,868 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (858,944 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (12,982 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (18,464 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (2,934,339 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (4,497,287 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (1,503,717 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (50,461 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (46,327 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (4,378,252 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (6,882,480 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (2,176,880 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (105,423 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (47,138 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (5,548,979 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (8,460,717 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (2,368,754 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (123,767 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (20,823 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (5,541,955 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (7,637,516 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (1,919,180 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (85,580 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (7,713 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (3,956,182 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (4,100,775 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (822,947 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (23,890 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.5% expected score (2,711 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (2,444,232 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (1,805,013 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (209,997 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (4,537 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 62.1% expected score (190 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (633,098 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (246,074 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (18,522 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (3,685 games)

177 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation, Billinger Gambit1.1K games
64.8%Floor 62.4%
2
Queen's Gambit Declined: Zilbermints Gambit5.3K games
62.6%Floor 61.5%
3
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation, Christensen Gambit6.5K games
60.9%Floor 59.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense, Yefimov Gambit11K games
59.0%Floor 58.2%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack55K games
58.0%Floor 57.7%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Schwartz Defense24K games
58.2%Floor 57.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Modern Gambit516K games
57.7%Floor 57.6%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Slav Gambit112K games
57.7%Floor 57.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation1.3M games
57.3%Floor 57.3%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation745K games
57.4%Floor 57.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line3.3K games
58.6%Floor 57.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Gunsberg Defense, Prianishenmo Gambit5.6K games
58.1%Floor 57.1%
Queen's Gambit1.2M games
57.0%Floor 56.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation3.8M games
56.9%Floor 56.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Harrwitz Attack, Two Knights Defense, Blockade Line14K games
57.4%Floor 56.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Tarrasch Defense, Pseudo-Tarrasch Bishop Attack8.2K games
57.5%Floor 56.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Janowski Variation659K games
56.4%Floor 56.3%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation697K games
56.2%Floor 56.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation115K games
55.9%Floor 55.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Three Knights, Vienna Variation945K games
55.5%Floor 55.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Bg4 Line49K games
55.7%Floor 55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System702K games
55.4%Floor 55.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense2.2M games
55.3%Floor 55.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation51K games
55.5%Floor 55.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Exchange Variation, Reshevsky Variation116K games
55.3%Floor 55.1%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense661K games
55.1%Floor 55.0%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Alekhine Defense, Haberditz Variation22K games
55.6%Floor 55.0%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense2.8M games
55.0%Floor 55.0%
Queen's Gambit Accepted5.1M games
55.0%Floor 55.0%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Vienna Variation, Quiet Variation405K games
55.0%Floor 54.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Harrwitz Attack, Main Line21K games
55.4%Floor 54.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Janowski-Larsen Variation118K games
55.1%Floor 54.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Harrwitz Attack, Orthodox Defense211K games
55.0%Floor 54.8%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Rubinstein Defense125K games
55.1%Floor 54.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred53K games
55.1%Floor 54.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation3.5M games
54.8%Floor 54.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Rochlin Variation161 games
61.1%Floor 54.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Alekhine Variation359 games
58.9%Floor 54.7%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense10M games
54.6%Floor 54.6%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Showalter Variation508K games
54.7%Floor 54.6%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System391K games
54.7%Floor 54.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Main Line7.3K games
55.6%Floor 54.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Miles Variation25K games
54.9%Floor 54.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Manhattan Variation27K games
54.9%Floor 54.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Bd3 Line46K games
54.8%Floor 54.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Modern Line76K games
54.6%Floor 54.3%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation752K games
54.2%Floor 54.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Cambridge Springs Defense, Argentine Variation794 games
57.0%Floor 54.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Janowski Variation168 games
60.3%Floor 54.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Anti-Tartakower Variation53K games
54.4%Floor 54.0%
Every Queen's Gambit variation, by name177
Analyze Queen's Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit family scores 54.1% for White — we are 90% confident it is 54.1% — from 76M Lichess games across 177 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
76M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit win rate?

Across the Queen's Gambit's 177 variations, White wins 52.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 76M rated games from Lichess.

How many Queen's Gambit variations are there?

177 Queen's Gambit variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit perform best?

The Queen's Gambit family performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 54.9% (5.0M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Queen's Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Queen's Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.1% in Blitz (37M games) against 54.9% in Rapid (10M games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit?

Queen's Gambit games are 95.9% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Queen's Gambit a good opening family?

The Queen's Gambit family is good for White overall. Across its games, White wins 52.0% and loses 43.9%. Results differ between its 177 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.