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Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation

697K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

43.8%

40%55%
Floor43.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 43.9%.

Measured over 697K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 697K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
697K
Best context
46.5% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
36.3% at 1600-1799 UltraBullet
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 41.8% at 0-999, 49.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (7,274 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (12,955 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (4,380 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 33.8% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.9% expected score (101 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (19,939 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (26,921 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (9,314 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 36.4% expected score (142 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (264 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (37,440 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (44,312 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (13,588 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (506 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 40.7% expected score (402 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (54,632 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (68,339 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (18,685 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.8% expected score (1,064 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 36.3% expected score (538 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (61,028 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (76,253 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (20,853 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (1,158 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.1% expected score (214 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (51,049 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (58,277 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (15,322 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (546 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.0% expected score (62 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (30,265 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (25,243 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (4,831 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.2% expected score (128 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 24.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (16,972 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (9,076 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (989 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (3,465 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (824 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (56 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation
52.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System
53.6%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation scores 43.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.7% and 43.9% — from 697K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
697K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation, Black wins 41.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 697K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 45.2% (27K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 44.3% in Blitz (322K games) against 42.3% in Rapid (88K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 42.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 41.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 56K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 41.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 55.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 96K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 41.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 143K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 160K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 125K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 41.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 61K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.9%, draws 6.5% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.1%, draws 11.1% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 37.8%, draws 1.7% and loses 60.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.7%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 42.4%, draws 2.9% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 282K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 322K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 39.9%, draws 4.8% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 88K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 36.6%, draws 6.0% and loses 57.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.6%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 41.8% of its games and loses 54.2%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.