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Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation

752K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.8%Range (90% confident): 45.7% – 45.9%Based on 752K games
0%45.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.7% – 45.9%
Outcome Distribution
43.8%4.0%52.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...b5
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation
Analyzen=752K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation has a 45.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.7% and 45.9%), based on 752K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 29%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.4% win rate (38,458 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.4% win rate (118,469 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.4% win rate (193,260 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.6% win rate (188,459 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.3% win rate (127,602 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.4% win rate (58,194 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.2% win rate (16,512 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.7% win rate (7,799 games)
  • 2500+: 28.5% win rate (2,803 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in UltraBullet (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 38.5% win rate (44 games)
  • Bullet: 45.1% win rate (95,249 games)
  • Blitz: 44.0% win rate (429,295 games)
  • Rapid: 42.9% win rate (218,428 games)
  • Classical: 41.2% win rate (8,540 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (10,175 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (23,165 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (5,093 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (20,501 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (74,780 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (22,984 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (196 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (22,370 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (114,906 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (54,482 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (1,498 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (17,612 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (100,671 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (66,700 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (3,464 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (11,501 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (67,573 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (45,968 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (2,551 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (7,044 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (31,429 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (19,056 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (664 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (3,168 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (9,833 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (3,384 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (126 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,720 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (5,472 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (589 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,158 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (1,466 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (172 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System
53.6%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation
54.2%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 752K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 53.0% win rate for white (118K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (53.9%) outperforms Blitz (51.9%) by 2.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 118K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 193K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.3%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 188K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 128K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 58K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.8%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 7.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation has a 31.6% (90% CI: 30.2%-33.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 48 moves with a 39.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.5%) win rate for white (95K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.0%) win rate for white (429K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.5%-52.8%) win rate for white (218K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.0%-54.8%) win rate for white (8.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.2% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.