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Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation

752K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.8%

40%55%
Floor45.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.9%.

Measured over 752K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 752K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
752K
Best context
51.7% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context
41.1% at 1800-1999 Classical
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 50.9%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (10,175 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (23,165 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (5,093 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (20,501 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (74,780 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (22,984 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (196 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (22,370 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (114,906 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (54,482 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (1,498 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (17,612 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (100,671 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (66,700 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (3,464 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (11,501 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (67,573 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (45,968 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (2,551 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (7,044 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (31,429 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (19,056 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (664 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (3,168 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (9,833 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (3,384 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (126 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,720 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (5,472 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (589 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,158 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (1,466 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (172 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System
53.6%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation
54.2%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation scores 45.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.7% and 45.9% — from 752K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
752K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation, Black wins 43.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 752K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 50.5% (7.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 46.1% in Blitz (429K games) against 45.2% in Rapid (218K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 45.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 118K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 193K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 188K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 128K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 58K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.7%, draws 5.6% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 7.8K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 28.5%, draws 39.9% and loses 31.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 48 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.1%, draws 2.7% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 95K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 429K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.9%, draws 4.4% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 218K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 41.2%, draws 4.9% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.8% of its games and loses 52.2%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.