Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System

702K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
3...Nf6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

44.7%

40%55%
Floor44.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 44.8%.

Measured over 702K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 702K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
702K
Best context
49.0% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
38.7% at 1600-1799 Classical
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.4%
Draws
3.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.7% at 0-999, 47.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.6% expected score (28 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (13,505 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (34,906 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (19,119 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 48.0% expected score (95 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (38 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (24,745 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (57,350 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (34,628 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (620 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (54 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (30,880 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (73,977 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (38,936 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (1,857 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.8% expected score (95 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (30,059 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (76,703 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (36,825 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (2,140 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (77 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (24,252 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (63,079 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (25,766 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (1,248 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (25 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (18,362 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (36,798 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (11,948 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.9% expected score (432 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (10,686 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (12,841 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (2,949 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.2% expected score (89 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (5,304 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (7,193 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (620 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (2,307 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (1,406 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.2% expected score (87 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation
52.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation
54.2%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System scores 44.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.6% and 44.8% — from 702K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
702K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System, Black wins 42.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 702K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 47.9% (13K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 44.9% in Blitz (364K games) against 43.5% in Rapid (171K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 43.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 68K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 42.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 117K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 42.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 146K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 42.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 146K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 114K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 68K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.4%, draws 4.5% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.0%, draws 5.7% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 41.4%, draws 13.1% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 46.7%, draws 1.9% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 336 Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 44.4%, draws 2.4% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 160K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 364K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 171K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 37.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 57.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.0%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.9% of its games and loses 53.6%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.