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Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation

745K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

57.4%

45%65%
Floor57.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 57.5%.

Measured over 745K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 745K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
745K
Best context
66.1% at 1600-1799 Classical
Worst context
52.8% at 2500+ Bullet
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +16.0% · Breakpoint: Never

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.4% · UltraBullet best · Bullet worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 62.0% at 0-999, 58.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 72.2% expected score (30 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (9,508 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (18,819 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (8,067 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 65.1% expected score (35 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 71.9% expected score (108 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (22,368 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (35,719 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 60.5% expected score (14,543 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 66.5% expected score (283 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 63.5% expected score (217 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (34,754 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (49,293 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 60.2% expected score (19,753 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 64.5% expected score (1,012 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 68.5% expected score (348 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (45,781 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (69,089 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 60.1% expected score (24,804 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 64.8% expected score (2,087 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (370 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (52,588 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (72,944 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.0% expected score (22,942 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 66.1% expected score (1,451 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.5% expected score (128 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (47,358 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (62,411 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (16,391 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 65.8% expected score (748 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.5% expected score (56 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (28,550 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (35,677 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 61.4% expected score (6,312 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 64.2% expected score (214 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (15,873 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (15,291 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (1,763 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.4% expected score (51 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (5,011 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (2,053 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (93 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 72.2% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation
52.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System
53.6%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Rosenthal Variation
54.2%
Continuations (1)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System
52.6%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation scores 57.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 57.3% and 57.5% — from 745K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
745K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, White wins 55.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 745K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 58.3% (73K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 57.2% in Blitz (361K games) against 59.8% in Rapid (115K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 55.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 56.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 73K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 56.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.0%. It rests on 105K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 55.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 142K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 54.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 150K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 54.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 127K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 55.2%, draws 5.1% and loses 39.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.8%. It rests on 71K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 53.1%, draws 6.2% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 48.9%, draws 8.2% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 64.1%, draws 1.5% and loses 34.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.8%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 54.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 262K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 55.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 361K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 57.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 37.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.8%. It rests on 115K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 62.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 32.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.3%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 55.4% of its games and loses 40.7%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.