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Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense

661K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

44.9%

40%55%
Floor44.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.0%.

Measured over 661K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 661K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
661K
Best context
48.4% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
39.2% at 1600-1799 Classical
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 91.9 · Trap factor: −2.5 · 661K games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 47.7% at 0-999, 35.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (17,954 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (41,163 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (18,431 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (97 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.8% expected score (63 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (26,348 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (65,808 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (34,858 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (531 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (53 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (27,966 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (77,909 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (39,775 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (1,745 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.8% expected score (52 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (23,137 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (78,154 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (39,707 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (2,192 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (15,673 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (55,372 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (29,745 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.2% expected score (1,468 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (8,679 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (24,034 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (12,652 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.2% expected score (439 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (3,743 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (5,613 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (2,187 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (54 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (1,251 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (2,847 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.3% expected score (212 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (401 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.3% expected score (375 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 20.6% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Old Variation
54.9%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Saduleto Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Greco Variation
52.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation
55.4%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Alekhine System
53.6%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense scores 44.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.8% and 45.0% — from 661K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
661K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense, Black wins 43.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 661K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 47.9% (4.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.1% in Blitz (351K games) against 44.1% in Rapid (178K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 43.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 78K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 42.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 128K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 42.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 147K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 143K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 102K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.4%, draws 4.5% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.8%, draws 6.1% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 37.4%, draws 10.0% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 783 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 41.7%, draws 0.7% and loses 57.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.1%. It rests on 225 Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 44.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 125K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 351K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 178K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 38.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 56.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.1%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Central Variation, Modern Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.0% of its games and loses 53.2%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.