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Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation

3.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.8%

45%60%
Floor54.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 3.5M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.5M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
3.5M
Best context
59.9% at 1200-1399 Classical
Worst context
53.1% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +11.8% · Breakpoint: Never

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 55.8% at 0-999, 57.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (256 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (29,079 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (39,226 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.8% expected score (11,471 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 62.9% expected score (49 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (630 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (86,053 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (98,699 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (31,912 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 60.3% expected score (490 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (1,829 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (168,812 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (195,073 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (59,669 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.9% expected score (1,706 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (3,531 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (263,801 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (313,403 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (88,800 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (4,129 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.3% expected score (2,743 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (314,486 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (389,760 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (100,077 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (5,718 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.5% expected score (849 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (283,607 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (339,936 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (83,523 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.8% expected score (3,958 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.3% expected score (174 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (185,301 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (163,057 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (31,182 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.9% expected score (919 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (29 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (101,024 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (62,070 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (5,250 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (84 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (21,818 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (6,669 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (301 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 74.3% expected score (52 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense
52.6%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation scores 54.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.7% and 54.8% — from 3.5M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
3.5M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation, White wins 52.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 3.5M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 56.0% (218K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 54.7% in Blitz (1.6M games) against 55.9% in Rapid (412K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 53.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 80K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 54.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 218K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 54.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 427K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 53.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 674K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 52.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 813K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 712K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 381K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.0%, draws 5.8% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 168K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 49.6%, draws 11.0% and loses 39.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 55.7%, draws 1.4% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 10K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 53.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 52.4%, draws 4.5% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 1.6M Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 53.4%, draws 4.9% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 412K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 55.8%, draws 6.1% and loses 38.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.9%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.8% of its games and loses 43.3%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.