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Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense

2.7M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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2...Bf5
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.0%

40%55%
Floor46.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 2.7M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.7M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
2.7M
Best context
47.8% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Worst context
39.0% at 1800-1999 Classical
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...c5? · Black wins: 51.5% · 1.5M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 41.3%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (126 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (21,004 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (24,018 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (6,767 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 22.8% expected score (37 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (364 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (61,525 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (72,032 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (16,498 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.0% expected score (202 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (754 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (128,418 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (177,772 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (37,837 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (977 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.0% expected score (1,724 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (217,838 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (336,775 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (73,368 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.4% expected score (2,299 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.3% expected score (1,023 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (244,111 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (410,020 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (91,828 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (2,733 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (427 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (204,286 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (268,996 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (63,435 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.0% expected score (1,240 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (280 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (105,358 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (67,819 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (14,220 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 33.8% expected score (199 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (41 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (31,001 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (16,678 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (1,777 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 26.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (4,029 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (767 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (50 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense
52.6%
Continuations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Slav
49.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Pseudo-Chigorin
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack
56.4%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Queen Attack Deferred
53.5%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Argentinian Gambit
47.7%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense scores 46.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.0% and 46.1% — from 2.7M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.7M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate?

Playing the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense, Black wins 44.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 2.7M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 46.7% (346K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 46.0% in Blitz (1.4M games) against 45.1% in Rapid (306K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 44.9%, draws 2.4% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 52K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.1%, draws 2.4% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 151K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 346K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 632K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 750K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 538K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.4%, draws 4.3% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 188K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.5%, draws 5.1% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 50K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.7%, draws 6.9% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 43.2%, draws 1.5% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 1.0M Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 306K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 38.8%, draws 4.1% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.9%. It rests on 7.7K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.2% of its games and loses 52.3%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.