TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense

2.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score44.8%Range (90% confident): 44.7% – 44.8%Based on 2.2M games
0%44.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.7% – 44.8%
Outcome Distribution
42.1%5.3%52.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Bb4
Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense
Analyzen=2.2M
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.3%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense has a 44.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.7% and 44.8%), based on 2.2M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 22%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.8% win rate (16,101 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.2% win rate (67,854 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.5% win rate (180,690 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.1% win rate (349,785 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.6% win rate (505,295 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.4% win rate (505,980 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.0% win rate (313,690 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.9% win rate (153,380 games)
  • 2500+: 21.7% win rate (57,242 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (45%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.4% win rate (3,440 games)
  • Bullet: 42.3% win rate (897,202 games)
  • Blitz: 42.0% win rate (1,023,288 games)
  • Rapid: 41.7% win rate (216,147 games)
  • Classical: 36.5% win rate (9,940 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (6,621 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (7,467 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (1,978 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.9% expected score (44 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (30,116 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (30,027 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (7,591 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (76 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (200 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (74,005 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (86,024 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (19,986 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (475 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (831 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (131,410 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (174,442 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (41,537 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (1,565 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.1% expected score (1,422 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (195,948 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (250,180 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (54,861 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (2,884 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (695 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (201,050 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (249,999 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (51,615 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (2,621 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.0% expected score (169 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (138,421 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (146,863 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (27,316 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (921 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (45 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (82,961 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (61,702 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (8,358 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (314 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (36,670 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (16,584 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (2,905 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (1,080 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Continuations (2)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation
49.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Vienna Variation
53.1%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.6%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 53.7% win rate for white (505K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.0%) outperforms Classical (47.3%) by 5.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.9%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 68K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.5%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 181K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.5%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 350K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.6%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 505K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense has a 53.2% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 506K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 314K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 153K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense has a 27.7% (90% CI: 27.4%-28.0%) win rate for white, based on 57K Lichess games. Average game length is 49 moves with a 50.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.3%-54.1%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.1%) win rate for white (897K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.4%-52.6%) win rate for white (1.0M Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.1%) win rate for white (216K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.5%-48.1%) win rate for white (9.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 16.2%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense is statistically favors white with a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.6%-52.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.